Aug. 2020: USDA forecasts increasing world grain supply in 2020/21 In its third estimate of global grain supply in 2020/21, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increases production to 2,230 million t. The result is 2.7% above the previous year. On the consumption side, 2,210 million t are predicted or an increase of 1.9%. This results in an increase in final stocks to 665 million t. The supply number increases from 28.9 to 30.1% final inventory for consumption. That is at the highest level. Since China only participates to a limited extent in world trade, but has more than half of the world's grain supplies, it is useful to calculate the supply figures without China. The key figure is then lower at 17.4%, but also remains at the highest level in a multi-year comparison. This means that in 2020/21 an above-average supply situation at world level would be expected with corresponding consequences for pricing. The USDA estimates global wheat production at 766 million tons, slightly higher than in the previous year.Increases are anticipated particularly in Australia, Argentina, Canada , India and China. Reduced harvests in the EU (-12.5%), Ukraine (-9%), North Africa (-5.5%) and the USA (-4.2%) offset the production increases to a considerable extent. Wheat consumption is estimated at a slightly increasing 750 million t. The global end stocks thus grow by 6.8% to 316.8 million t. Without China, the excess amounts are only half as high, but are increasing by a similarly large extent. The wheat stocks excluding China are sufficient for 90 days (previous year 85 days). In view of the pronounced precautionary behavior of individual countries under convid pandemic conditions , however, the high supply situation may need to be put into perspective. The latest rises on the stock exchanges indicate this. Global maize production is estimated to be 5% higher at 1,171 million t.The increase is mainly caused by the USA with a forecast harvest of 388 million tons, which is expected to be 12% above the previous year . In Mexico , the corn harvest is expected to deliver 30% more than in the weak previous year. Ukraine expects a harvest increase of 9.7%. Global corn consumption is estimated to be 3.6% higher at 1,165 million t. The USDA assumes that corn use for bioethanol production will stabilize again in the coming marketing year. Higher consumption levels are also expected in the feed sector. The global stocks of corn rise from 313 to 315 million t and are arithmetically sufficient for 99 days. Without China, the range is 57 days compared to 45 days in the previous year. There were only minor increases in the rest of the grain . For the EU-28 , the USDA estimates a total harvest of 298 million t, of which 135 million t is wheat. Union exports are expected to drop from 48 to 35.7 million t.The imports should remain largely the same. The USDA calculates the EU surplus stocks at approx. 28 million t, only 1 million t below the previous year. In an initial reaction, wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose and reached the critical level of $ 5 per bushel (€ 155.73 / t) again. The US corn prices show a slight downward trend. In Paris, wheat prices are stabilizing around the level of € 177.5 / t with a slight upward trend.
