- USDA estimate for the 2021/22 grain harvest: wheat at record levels
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its 2nd estimate of the world grain supply in 2021/22. The first stock market reactions were still subdued. The USDA estimates the global total harvest 3.1% higher to 2,291 million t compared to the previous year. This is compared with a 1.5% increase in consumption to the amount of 2,281 million t. This results in final stocks of 615 million t, slightly higher than in the previous year. The supply figures including China decrease only slightly to 27.0% and without China to 15.1 % final inventory for consumption. This corresponds to an average supply situation averaged over the last 5 years. Under today's market conditions, especially with a new strong demand from China, the situation must be assessed more critically. China's imports are estimated at 56.9 million2 years ago Chinese imports were still at 23 million t. The USDA estimates the global wheat harvest at a record level of 794.5 million t or + 2.3% higher than in the previous year. The EU made a decisive contribution to this with an increase of 8.5% to 137.5 million t compared to the weak previous year. An increasing wheat harvest of 20.5 million t (previous year 17.6 million t) is forecast for Argentina. After the unfavorable previous year, Ukraine should again reach 29.5 million t (previous year 25 million t). Contrary to the previous month's forecast, the Russian wheat harvest is expected to increase by 86 million tons . Weaker harvests are expected in Australia compared to the previous year's record result of 27 million t (previous year 33 million t). Canada's wheat harvest is also estimated to be lower : 32 mln t compared to 35.2 mln t in the previous year. The USDA estimates global wheat consumption at 791 million.t. This means that the global stocks have risen to 297 million t or 37.5% of the final stock for consumption. Increasing consumption figures are expected for the EU, India, Russia and Great Britain. Without China , a supply figure of around 24% of the final stock for consumption is calculated. That is enough for around 88 days. Global wheat exports are expected to grow by 3.1%. In particular, Russia with an increased 40 million t, Ukraine with an increased 20.5 million t, the EU with an increasing 33 million t, Australia with an unchanged 20 million t and Argentina with a slightly increasing 13.5 million t are involved . Together these 5 regions account for almost two thirds of world trade in wheat. On the import side , Egypt leads the way with 13 million tonnes of wheat imports; The Black Sea countries and the EU compete for this sales area.This is followed by Indonesia with 11 million t, China and Turkey with a further 10 million t each. The North African countries Algeria and Morocco together have 12.5 million tonnes of wheat imports, most of which are served from France. The USDA estimates global corn production - unchanged from the previous month - 5.4% higher to 1,190 million t compared to the previous year. For the USA , the USDA expects an increase of 5.7% to 381 million tons . In Ukraine, the USDA even estimates a 24% increase to 37.5 million t compared to the weak previous year. In China , the maize harvest is estimated unchanged from the previous month at 268 million t. However, the corn harvests in Brazil are only estimated at 118 million.This is not estimated after the delayed sowing after the previous crop soy is now also affected by persistent drought severely affecting growth. However, the Brazilian harvest result is still quite uncertain. According to US estimates, global corn consumption is expected to remain unchanged at 1,181 million t below production. The final stocks drop from 292 to 289 million t. The worldwide coverage figure goes insignificantly to 24.5%. Without China , however, the supply standard is only 10.3% final inventory for consumption and is therefore only sufficient for just under 38 days . There are still considerable risks to be overcome before the harvest in autumn 2021. The USDA increases global corn exports by 6.7%. The South American countries Brazil (43 Mio.t ), Argentina with a reduced 36 million t. Then comes the Ukraine with an unchanged 30.5 million t. The US is to reduce its corn exports from 70 million tons last year to 62 million tons this year . On the import side , China dominates with an increasing import volume of 26 mln t, ahead of Mexico with an increased 19.5 mln t and the EU with almost 16 mln t and Japan with an increased 17 mln t. After a brief interim high of the equivalent of € 230 / t, the stock exchange prices in Chicago are now back at € 220 / t wheat . The corn prices have temporarily fallen to the equivalent of € 245.3 / t. Enormous Chinese purchases in the US are spurring the courses.
