- USDA 2023/24 World Grain Market Estimate
Despite the flooding of 500,000 ha of farmland in Ukraine as a result of the dam destruction, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a higher global grain supply in 2023/24 compared to the previous year. Production is provisionally estimated at just under 2,313 million t (previous year 2,230 million t), better than last year. The USDA estimates global consumption at 2,294 million t (previous year 2,248 million t), higher than the previous year. This improves the global supply balance to a closing stock of 610 million t compared to the current year with only 587 million t. The range of inventories increases to 97 days (previous year 92 days). In the case of wheat , the USDA forecasts world production of around 800 million t (previous year 788 million t). Consumption is estimated at 796 million tons. As a result, inventories are expected to increase slightly. However, very different developments are observed in the main production/export areas.The biggest slump in production, at -17%, is forecast for the Ukraine . Russia will also bring in a -7.6% lower wheat harvest due to reduced acreage and only average yield expectations. A sharp drop of -26% is expected after Australia's two record years in La Niña conditions. On the other hand, an average harvest result of 19.5 million t (previous year 12.6 million t) is expected for Argentina . Only a slightly higher wheat harvest is forecast in the USA . Despite reduced domestic consumption and reduced exports, US ending inventories will be at their lowest level in 16 years. This means that the USA will be able to act very cautiously when selling wheat on the world market. Wheat production in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 4.5%, as will exports. On the import side , the notable increases in wheat imports from North African countries, the Middle East and Southeast Asia stand out. On the other hand, import restrictions are expected for China .Overall, the global wheat market remains only just averagely supplied. After a month-long decline , prices on the stock exchanges have now entered a stabilization phase. The forthcoming developments in the Ukraine are causing a renewed fear of supply. The USDA estimates the world corn harvest at 1,223 million t (previous year 1,151 million t). This is offset by a consumption of 1,206 million t, so that stocks are expected to build up. The range of inventories is calculated at an unchanged 95 days. However, different results are expected at the individual locations. Again it is Ukraine , whose corn production is expected to be -11% lower at 24.5 million t. In the pre-war year it was still 42 million t. On the other hand, +11% increase is predicted in the US due to crop planning and average yields. After the catastrophic previous year with only 35 million tons, the Argentine corn harvest is expected to increase again to an average level of 54 million tons. After the weak corn year 2022, an average harvest result is also expected for the EU-27 .With changes in the flow of goods , global corn trade is expected to increase significantly again in 2023 by +8%. The two largest exporters, Brazil (57 million t) and the USA (54 million t), together account for around 57% of world trade. On the import side, China (23 million t), the EU (22.5 million t), Mexico (18 million t) and Japan (15.5 million t) are in the lead. The stock market prices for corn have also recovered from their downward trend and are currently on the up. In the Ukraine, only 1% of the maize area is affected by the consequences of the dam failure.
