USDA estimates global cereal production later a US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its edition Dez.2021 the world grain harvest 2021/22 to 2,279 million tonnes estimated slightly higher than last month. Global consumption is also set to be somewhat higher at 2,283 million t. The stocks remain at around 609 million t. The pension figure remains unchanged at 26.6% of the end-of-life (previous year: 27.1%) of consumption, excluding China, a decrease of 14.2%. The multi-year development of a tighter supply situation basically continues. Transport bottlenecks exacerbate the market development. A significant stamping of this grain marketing year is determined by lower harvests in Russia , Canada and the USA. In the northwest of North America, the great heat wave was the cause. In Russia, over-wintered stocks and poor grain formation were responsible. In contrast, the harvests in Australia are set to the record high of 51 million.t priced. An above-average harvest of around 85 million t is also estimated in the Ukraine. The USDA estimates the EU-27 harvest at around 294 million t (previous year 280 million t). The global wheat harvest is estimated to be around 778 million t higher than in the previous month. Global consumption rose to 789 million tons, a little higher than in the previous month. In a month-on-month comparison, there was a slight build-up of stocks; Compared to the previous year, the supply figure has fallen from 37% to 35% final inventory for consumption. Wheat exports from the world's largest exporting countries fell in Canada by -43% (-11 million t) and in Russia by -6.5% (-2.5 million t) compared to the previous year. In contrast, increasing export volumes are expected in the Ukraine (+9 million t) and the EU-27 (+8 million t).On the import side , however, a considerable increase from 194 million t in the previous year to 203 million t can be observed. The global corn harvest is classified by a further +4 million t to 1,209 million t compared to the previous month and is 7.6% above the previous year's result. Consumption is estimated slightly higher at 1,196 million t. The supply situation has improved by 12 million t compared to the weak previous year. Compared to previous years, the stocks in the maize sector remain in the lower middle range with 25.5% final stock of consumption (previous year 27%). The US corn harvest is estimated at 382.6 million t (previous year 358.5 million t), unchanged from the previous month. The US harvest, which accounts for around a third of world production and exports, has a major impact on global market and price developments. The harvest is almost complete. After the weak result of the past FY 2020/21 with 86 million tons and a 35% export decline for the coming year, the corn harvest in Brazil is expected to return to 118 million tons.t increase, but there are still risks for the second crop after soy. In China , the maize harvest is estimated to have been slightly reduced compared to the previous month's estimate to 272.5 million t (previous year 261 million t). Favorable precipitation conditions in the north-western cultivation regions compensate for the losses in the flooded areas. Chinese corn imports are expected to decrease by 3.5 million t to 26 million t. Five years ago, China only imported 3 million tons. On the Chicago stock exchange , the USDA report caused wheat prices to drop to the equivalent of 250 € / t for December 21st. December exchange rates for corn fell only slightly to the equivalent of € 204 / t. The prices on the Paris stock exchange show no major movements for the time being. The currently sensitive price situation is exacerbated by the tight supply-demand relationships and the bottlenecks in global transport with increased freight rates. The Covid pandemic is increasing fears in importing countries about security of supply with corresponding purchases in stock.Added to this are the poor prospects for the coming harvest as a result of the global fertilizer shortage and high fertilizer prices.
