USDA renews grain harvest estimates

USDA Nov. 2023: 2023/24 supply of wheat lower than corn The US Department of Agriculture increased the world grain harvest slightly to 2,281 million t in its monthly Nov. 23 estimate compared to the previous month. Compared to the previous year, the result is around 2% higher. Previous forecasts for the 2023/24 world grain harvest:

Global consumption is estimated at 2,280 million tonnes . (previous year 2,248 million t). Ending stocks are expected to decrease slightly to approx . 600 million t increase.The supply figure that influences the price is 26.3% final inventory to consumption. However, the global wheat harvest is only estimated at 782 million tonnes . (previous year 789 million t). Despite an upward correction of the Russian harvest, the crop losses in Australia, Argentina and India are not being made up for. Global wheat consumption rises to 793 million t . Global wheat trade is expected to fall by -15 million t to around 205 million t. Australia, which has almost halved, as well as Canada and Ukraine, with 3 to 5 million tonnes less, make a significant contribution to this. Ending wheat stocks are falling by around 11 million tonnes. However, the reserves are still enough for 119 days. (excluding China 71 days). Around half of the existing stocks are hoarded in China and are not available to the rest of the world. Wheat prices continue to move in a narrow price range between 225 and 240 €/t. Of the remaining grains , corn accounts for more than 80% worldwide.The global corn harvest in 2023/24 is expected to grow to 1,221 million t . (previous year 1,157 million tons). The USA played a decisive role in the increase with an increase from last year's 348 to this year's 387 million t. In contrast, the Brazilian harvest fell by 8 million t to 129 million t. China's corn harvest is estimated to be largely unchanged at 277 million tonnes. EU corn production is estimated at almost 60 million tonnes. After the weak previous year, world trade in corn is returning to the figures from 2021/22. China in particular is increasing its imports to around 23 million tonnes of corn plus 12 million tonnes of wheat. Global corn consumption is estimated to be only slightly higher at 1,205 million tons . The USDA calculates the final stocks at 315 million t, significantly larger than the previous year at almost 300 million t. Around two thirds of this will be stored in China. If you exclude China from the corn supply balance, only 113 million tons are left for the rest of the world; that's enough for 46 days (previous year 39 days). The corn prices are based on the weak phase in October.-23 at a slightly higher level, but are not yet stable because the final harvest results have not yet been determined.