USDA corrects global grain supply 2022/23 slightly upwards compared to the previous month Results in year -on-year comparison In its July 2022 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the world grain harvest for 2022/23 for the third time. Global production is estimated at 2,249 million t (previous year 2,280 million t). Global consumption is also classified as lower at 2,262 million t (previous year 2,280 million t). The ending stocks were calculated at around 605 million t (previous year 614 million t). The supply figure falls to 26.7% ending stock to consumption (previous year 26.9%), excluding China to a declining 14.4%.Although the quantitative supply is still within the tightening limits of previous years, the assessment of the security of supply has become considerably more critical against the background of the war in Ukraine. Fear of supply has become a price-determining factor. In global world trade , the quantities were estimated lower at 432 million t (previous year 465 million t). In the case of Ukraine exports , an export quantity of around 20.8 million t (previous year 60 million t) is predicted; For Russia , the USDA estimates export quantities of 49.5 million tons of grain (previous year: 42.5 million tons ). The export cuts are offset by export increases in Canada, the USA and the EU . Despite the drought , India is expected to export wheat at the previous year's level.On the import side , the critical supply situation in the North African and Middle Eastern countries is confirmed with slightly reduced import volumes. China is to reduce its grain imports by around 10% . Results compared to the previous month 's estimate The corrections to the estimate in June 2022 are comparatively small. The global wheat harvest will be cut by 2 million t due to lower yields in the EU, Ukraine and Argentina. The higher production expectations in Canada carry little weight. However, the reduced consumption ensures that the ending wheat stocks increase marginally. The rest of the grain harvest, with a focus on corn, is also down by 2 million tons. Cuts have been made in EU production and Russian maize production. The consumption volume is also reduced by 2 million t compared to the previous year.As a result of higher starting stocks, ending stocks also rose compared to the previous month 's estimate. The corrections to the previous month's estimate provide only minor changes. The small improvement in the ending stocks cannot significantly increase the fundamentally tight supply situation. The USDA estimates the wheat harvest at almost 772 million t below the previous year's 779 million t. The EU will harvest less at 134.1 million t (previous year 138.4) and export an increasing 35.5 million t. China's wheat harvest is estimated at 135 million tons with an import quantity of 9.5 million tons. For India , the USDA expects a wheat harvest of 106 million t (previous year 110) , of which 6.5 million t are to be exported while stocks are reduced.For Russia , the USDA estimates that wheat production will increase by 7% to around 81.5 million tons; Russian exports are estimated at 39 million t (previous year 33 million t). The US harvest is estimated at 48.5 million t , of which 22 million t are exported. After last year's disastrous result, a wheat harvest of 34 million t (previous year 21.6 million t) is expected in Canada , of which 25 million t will be exported. On the import side there are 28 countries that are existentially dependent on wheat imports . These include most countries in North Africa, with Egypt at the forefront, many countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The USDA estimates that the import quantities of the affluent countries are only slightly lower than in previous years, but the delivery quantities in the poorer importing countries are falling.The USDA estimates the corn harvest at 1,186 million t (previous year 1,218 million t). This is compared with a consumption of 1,185 million t (previous year 1,199 million t). The end stock is almost unchanged from the previous year at 313 million t and lasts for almost 96 days. The world's largest US corn harvest is estimated at 368.5 million t (previous year 384 million t). The decline is mainly due to the area, because more soybean tends to be cultivated (without the need for N fertilization). The USA is expected to export 61 million tons of corn. The Brazilian corn crop is expected to deliver 126 million tons, of which 47 million tons are to be exported. A corn yield of 68 million tonnes is expected in the EU-27 ; 15 million t of imports are required to cover demand. A good harvest of 55 million tons is expected in Argentina , of which 41 million tons will be exported.Overall, global corn trade will increase noticeably compared to the previous year. In addition to the EU , major import regions, each with around 15 million tons, are Mexico, Southeast Asia and Japan . China is reducing its previous imports of over 20 million tons to this year's 18 million tons. July wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell below €300/t. The background to this is the negotiations between several institutions involved to regulate the shipping routes through the Black Sea for the removal of Ukrainian wheat. As a result, considerably more merchandise could be available. Paris wheat prices have also fallen. In any case, the price upswing of the previous week has been caught again.However, the exchange rates for the following delivery months show severe turbulence. The significant loss of purchasing power of the euro against the dollar leads to higher import prices, but also promotes export competitiveness.
