USDA slightly increases global grain supply in 2019/20: less consumption and trade The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has in its monthly market report provided the latest estimate of global grain supply in 2019/20 for the time being. The first estimate for 2020/21 comes in May. The total production of this marketing year is estimated to be slightly higher at 2,167 million tons. This contrasts with a consumption of 2,168 million tons. This results in final stocks of 637 million t or 28.9% of consumption. The stocks are mathematically sufficient for 107 days compared to the previous month's estimate of 103 days. Compared to the previous year, the grain supply remains at about the same level. Increases in wheat are offset by declines in feed grain. The global wheat supply will be reduced by approx. 2% higher than estimated in March. The stocks last for 143 days. The harvest quantities remain unchanged. Consumption will decrease by 5 million tons to approx. 750 million classified.The correction is mainly caused by China and India as a result of the virus epidemic. The global maize harvest is increased by 1 million tonnes to 1,113 million tonnes, essentially as a result of the increase in the EU maize harvest to 66.6 million tonnes. On the consumption side , the USDA assumes a global reduction of approx. 5 million tonnes, which comes about almost exclusively due to the declining use of bioethanol production in the USA . The global end stocks increase to 303 million t or almost 27% of consumption. The range extends to 98 days. As a result of the CoVid-19 pandemic, the USDA raises the producer price level for US wheat to the equivalent of € 15.40 / dt. The background to this is the findings of increased stockpiling while simultaneously reducing exports from surplus countries. In the case of the corn price , the average exchange rates are reduced to € 12.85 / dt.The main reason is the decline in consumption of bioethanol from corn as a result of the drop in crude oil prices. Responses to the USDA report on the Chicago Stock Exchange were subdued. Low participation and the long weekend triggered only minor changes at the level reached so far.
