USDA cuts global wheat supply, increases corn stocks In its October 2021 edition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the world grain harvest in 2021/22 to be a little lower than in the previous month at 2,270 million t. Global consumption is also estimated to be somewhat lower at 2,273 million t. The inventories fall to 605 million t. The supply figure remained unchanged at 26.6% of the end-of-life balance (previous year 27.2%) of consumption, excluding China, a decrease of 14.1%. The multi-year development of a tighter supply situation continues this year. The harvests in Russia with -15% (-12.5 million t) remain below the previous year, also in Canada with -27% (-18 million t). In the USA, wheat has lost almost 10% compared to the previous year. The cause in North America is the great heat wave in the northwest. In Russia, over-wintered stocks and poor grain formation are the main causes. In contrast, the harvests in Australia are still estimated at a high 47 million t.In Ukraine , the previously estimated record result of around 83 million t will only be reduced slightly . The USDA estimates the EU-27 harvest at around 294 million t. The global wheat harvest will again be reduced to around 776 million t as a result of the losses in North America. Worldwide consumption will be reduced to 787 million t . The consequence is a reduction in stocks (without China) to the supply figure of 21.3% final stock to consumption (previous year 22.7%). Wheat exports from the world's largest exporting countries fell in Canada by -43% (-11 million t) and in Russia by -9% (-3.5 million t) compared to the previous year. In contrast, increasing export volumes are expected in the Ukraine (+6 million t) and the EU-27 (+6 million t). The global corn harvest is unchanged from the previous month at 1,198 million.t and is 7% above the previous year's result. Consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 1,186 million t. The supply situation has improved by 12 million t compared to the weak previous year. Compared to previous years, the stocks in the corn sector remain in the lower mid-range. The US corn harvest was increased again to 381.5 million t (previous year 358.5 million t). Recent rainfall and a larger area under cultivation contribute to the increase. The US harvest, with its 32% share of world production and export, has a decisive influence on global market and price developments. The harvest is not yet complete. After the weak result of the past FY 2020/21, the maize harvest in Brazil is expected to rise again to 118 million t in the coming year with 86 million t and a 35% decline in exports , but there are still risks for the second harvest after soy. In China , the maize harvest will continue to rise by +5 million t compared to the previous month's estimate to 273 million t (previous year 261 million t).Favorable precipitation conditions in important cultivation regions more than compensate for the losses in the floodplains. Chinese corn imports are expected to drop by 2 million t to 26 million t. Five years ago, China only imported 3 million tons. On the Chicago stock exchange , the USDA report caused considerable turmoil in wheat prices; After a sharp rise to the equivalent of around 230 € / t, the prices fell back by the same amount a day later and have recently started to rise again. After the first sharp drops, the December prices for corn are now quoting at 175 € / t, which has risen again. The prices on the Paris stock exchange followed with a time lag. December wheat is quoted at around € 265 / t and November maize at € 240 / t. The sensitive price situation is not only a consequence of tight supply-demand relationships but is also exacerbated by the bottlenecks in global transport with increased freight rates.
