USDA Aug 2023: World grain 2023/24 down slightly – but better than last year In its August issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) corrected the world grain supply only slightly compared to the previous month. Global production is estimated slightly lower at 2,290 million t. There were downward corrections to the previous month in particular in the USA (-6 million t), Canada (-2.5 million t), EU-27 (-9 million t), China (-6 million t and Russia (- 3 million t). In contrast, the harvests in the Ukraine were estimated to be +8 million t higher. Whether these Ukrainian quantities will actually reach the world market remains questionable in view of the export bans through the Black Sea. Compared to the previous year , with an increase in production of 2.6% is expected. The USDA estimates global consumption at 2,283 million t or 1.5% higher than in the previous year. As a result, the ending stocks increase slightly to 26.4% of consumption. The calculation of the supply situation without China however, remains unchanged.t) there were only minor downward corrections in a monthly comparison (Aug to July). The world wheat harvest is estimated to be slightly higher on balance by 0.65% compared to the previous year . However, there are significant differences in the individual producing countries. Australia experienced the biggest slump with an El Niño-related slump of -25.6% compared to the two above-average high harvests of the previous year. Russia is also expected to import 7.6% less wheat, but it still has high stocks from the good previous year and should continue to export at a high level, provided there are enough foreign ships available. On the other hand, the USA expects an increase in the 2023 wheat harvest, but without being able to export more. In the EU-27, reduced domestic consumption compensates for lower wheat production; the declining animal population is the main reason.EU trade with third countries is to be cut significantly on the import side, while export volumes are expected to increase. The originally high harvest expectations for China have been reset to the previous year's level as a result of the adverse weather conditions. Import volumes have increased slightly. In contrast, the USDA estimates the Indian wheat harvest to be around 10% higher than in the previous year. Fears about insufficient monsoon rains are currently rated as low. The low wheat harvests in the North African countries due to the drought were not quite as bad as in the extreme previous year. Nevertheless, the imports are valued higher. In addition to the exporting countries of the Black Sea, the EU-27 is also playing a significant role. According to the latest USDA estimate, the global 2023/24 corn harvest is expected to be +3.1% higher. A decisive part is attributed to Argentina with an increase of +46% compared to the catastrophic previous year.But the US Department of Agriculture also expects production growth of 14% for the EU-27 compared to the weak harvest in 2022. Despite adverse weather conditions at times in some growing regions, the US corn harvest for 2023 is estimated to be around 10% higher than in the previous year. Global corn consumption is expected to fall only slightly compared to production, with the result that inventories will be noticeably smaller at the end of the year. World trade in corn is expected to increase by around 10 million t or 5.7% compared to the previous year; half of this is due to Chinese imports with an increase of +5 million t. Usually a significant proportion comes from Ukraine, but the Black Sea route is not yet safe! EU-27 maize imports remain almost unchanged; the decisive factor is Spain's high import requirements.
