26.
04.24
08:37

EU Commission lowers 2024/25 wheat forecast

Wheat prices remained true to their recent trend and rose again yesterday. Prices on the cash markets are also pointing north. In Paris, the highest-volume September futures contract is trading at 231.50 euros/t with an increase of 3 euros. On the CBoT, the July contract rose by 7.50 cents to 620.50 US cents/bu, which corresponds to a converted price of 212.50 euros/tonne. The market as a whole continues to be supported by the dry weather prospects in many US growing regions. There are also signs of dry weather in Ukraine and in the main growing regions in southern Russia. Concerns about European quality are also driving up prices. The EU Commission has reduced its forecast for the European wheat harvest in 2024/25 to 120.18 million tons. This would be the lowest wheat harvest since 2020. The total grain harvest will be slightly higher than in 2023/24, due in particular to higher expectations for maize and barley, but larger quantities of oats and rye are also likely to be harvested from the fields. European exports are expected to reach 31 million tons in the coming marketing year. In a special report, the USDA has estimated the harvest volume for Canada in the coming season at 33.67 million tons. As a result, its own forecast has been increased by 1.7 million tons. At 450,000 tons, US export bookings yesterday did not bring any major surprises, but were at the upper end of analysts' estimates. Pre-market this morning shows marginal losses in wheat contracts up to and including July 2025.

Source
VR AGRAR
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