Less wheat in Europe and Ukraine

Yesterday, the front month of May 24 fell below the 200 euros per tonne mark again and closed with a loss of 1.25 euros at 199.00 euros/t. The focus of many traders yesterday was renewed forecasts for the coming harvest. The European trade association Cocereal has estimated the 2024 European grain harvest to be 5 million tonnes higher than the previous year's harvest. However, according to the association's estimates, a wheat harvest of 123 million tonnes is expected to be around 2 million tonnes lower. While Spain is expected to produce significantly more, noticeable declines are expected for Poland, France and Hungary. The Ukrainian Grain Association was also pessimistic about the coming grain harvest. The association's experts estimated the wheat harvest at 20 million tonnes, which would be around 2 million tonnes below the previous year's result. Across the Atlantic there were new estimates for Canada. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that wheat production will be 34.59 million tonnes in 2024/25. That is around 670,000 tonnes more than the ministry had previously forecast. The fact that the CBoT and Matif quotations were unable to increase despite the pessimistic assessments for Europe and Ukraine is mainly due to profit-taking. On the Matif, the 200 euro mark seems to be a technical barrier for many traders, the same applies to the CBoT for the 550 US cents/bu mark. In pre-market trading, the contracts rose slightly again this morning, but are still unable to overcome the trading mark in the front month of May today.

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