Wheat: Critical condition in Europe - good conditions in Russia

The renewed weak condition assessments ensured that prices for wheat on the Paris Stock Exchange rose on Thursday. For the front month of May it increased by 2.75 euros/t to 203.50 euros/t. Trade was suspended on Good Friday and Easter Monday. As the French agricultural board announced on Thursday, 66 percent of winter wheat stocks are in good or very good condition. A year ago it was 28 percentage points more. The stocks are therefore in a condition that they have not been in for several years. There was only limited trading on the cash markets in the week before Easter and many market participants are expecting business to be manageable this week too. The Russian consulting firm IKAR reports a further increase in export prices in Russia, which are now trading at 204.50 US dollars per ton. Recently there have been reports of accelerated exports from Russia. Unlike in many parts of Europe, farmers in Russia are satisfied with the development of winter wheat stocks and the conditions for sowing spring wheat are also friendly. The consulting firm Sovecon recently increased its forecast for the Russian harvest by 0.4 million tons to 94 million tons of wheat. Trading on the CBoT resumed on Easter Monday. Contracts closed with losses. Slightly better wheat shipments for exports are supporting prices, but good assessments of the condition of existing wheat stocks are putting a damper on sentiment. The USDA reported yesterday that 56 percent of winter wheat fields are in good or very good condition, the highest figure at this time since 2016. This morning, contracts are trending with small losses.

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