Last week, the wheat market on Euronext (MATIF) was stable, with a slight upward trend. This development was boosted by technical support and sustained, albeit moderate, export demand. However, the competitiveness of European wheat exports remains challenging due to global market conditions. Yesterday, the scoreboards were down due to a public holiday.
In comparison, the US wheat market on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) recorded price declines over the course of the week. Yesterday, Thursday, futures were mixed. While Chicago SRW wheat recorded slight gains of up to 2 ¼ US cents, Kansas City HRW futures traded with losses of 2 to 3 cents. However, the nearby May contract improved slightly by 1 ¾ cents. Prices for spring wheat in Minneapolis closed mostly weaker, down 1 to 2 cents, with only May gaining 2 ½ cents. A wetter weather forecast for parts of the HRW and SRW growing regions is currently slowing down any potential upward movement. In addition, the unfavorable dollar exchange rate is weighing on trade. Weekly US export sales amounted to 75,005 tons - a clear increase compared to the previous week, when net repurchases were reported. Thailand was the largest buyer with 58,000 tons, followed by Nigeria with 39,000 tons. For the new crop, 238,300 tons were sold - a figure in the middle of expectations (100,000-400,000 tons). South Korea bought 58,000 tons and a further 49,600 tons went to unknown buyers. A total of 229.62 million bushels of wheat were processed into flour in the USA in the period from January to March - around 3 million more than in the same period last year.
Corn prices on the CBOT were largely stable this week with a slight upward trend. The trading volume declined. Despite favorable planting conditions in the USA and positive harvest prospects in South America, speculators kept their bullish positions in corn futures largely stable. This could be due to hopes of progressing US trade negotiations, which could potentially boost grain exports. US corn contracts ended Thursday with slight losses - the front months were down 3 to 4 US cents, while December futures were up slightly by 1 cent. The average cash price for corn according to CmdtyView remained unchanged at 4.42 ¾ $/bu. Weekly export sales totaled 1.014 million metric tons, a three-week low, according to the USDA. Nevertheless, they were 33.7% above the previous year's figure. Mexico was once again the largest buyer with 451,400 tons, followed by Colombia (166,200 tons) and Israel (130,700 tons). A total of 244,704 tons were booked for the new harvest - the second-highest weekly figure of the current season. Mexico was once again the main buyer with 184,700 tons, while Japan secured 56,000 tons. The monthly "Grain Crushing" report from NASS reports a consumption of 454.2 million bushels of corn for ethanol production in March - an increase of 7.7% compared to February, but 3.8% below the previous year's level. In total, 3.209 billion bushels of corn have been processed into ethanol so far this marketing year - around 18 million more than at the same time last year. On the other side of the Pacific, the corn market is currently quiet. Many farmers are busy working in the fields and the low prices on the cash market are generating little trading interest.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
On the grain markets, the focus is currently on both trade data and the weather. The US market is showing mixed trends, with price declines and slight recoveries, but wetter weather forecasts and the dollar are putting the brakes on possible upward movements. Prices on the maize market are stabilizing slightly, with positive export demand, particularly from Mexico and Colombia, providing support. Despite a decline in trade activity and an uncertain outlook for US trade negotiations, market participants remain positive at present.
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