09.
04.20
Wheat trading is agile

Cereals news, 04/09/2020

Bullish
  • Good export demand
  • Drought in the Black Sea region
  • Exchange rates
  • Export restrictions Ukraine
  • smaller acreage 2020
Bearish
  • Ethanol production declining
  • Willingness to deliver producers
  • Corona pandemic
Bread wheat Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 8 +/-
Hamburg 180.00 193.00 199.00 196.00 198.00 2.00
Lower Rhine 174.00 187.00 193.00 190.00 196.00 6.00
Upper Rhine 166.00 179.00 185.00 182.00 188.00 6.00
East Germany 164.00 177.00 183.00 180.00 182.00 2.00
Fodder wheat 12thMarch Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 8 +/-
Hamburg 178.00 191.00 197.00 194.00 196.00 2.00
Oldenburg 176.00 189.00 195.00 192.00 198.00 6.00

Wheat prices developed positively in this shortened week. The courses increased compared to last Friday. The front month of May gains 6.25 euros / ton from Friday to Wednesday and closes the trading day at Wednesday's 197.25 euros. The tailwind for Europe's wheat comes from many parts of the world. Export demand continues to be good. By 6 April 2020, the EU was able to export a total of 24,775,466 tons of common wheat, which is 9.8 million tons more than last year at the same time. For France, exporters reported a new record export in March, which was last set up in February. Price increases are evident on the Black Sea and in Ukraine the government has limited daily exports to an average of 14,000 tons in order to keep prices stable in the country itself. Russia's transport logistics have problems. Hundreds of trucks were stuck earlier this week because they had no permits to enter the port cities. Additional support for the price increase comes from the weather. In the Ukraine and Russia it remains dry, heat stress and reduced yields are not excluded.But even in the important growing countries in Europe, after a very wet February and in some cases also a lot of rain in March, drought increases. If it continues to be so dry, drought stress and the associated reduced yields also threaten here. Demand on the cash market has calmed down somewhat, but demand is reported particularly in southern Germany. At the current price level, producers are quite willing to pay. Corn makes hardly any leaps with comparatively low sales on the Euronext / Matif, but can end with a small plus for many days. Yesterday the grain went down 1 euro / ton. Import volumes are still high, with 16,047,578 tonnes less was imported than last year, but still a good 3 million tonnes more than in the 2017/2018 marketing year. The cultivation forecasts were recently increased. Corn continues to find no ground in the USA and has now reached a 3½ year low. Large quantities of corn are used there for ethanol production. However, this is greatly reduced due to the reduced fuel demand and there are inquiries in exports, but they are not so high that the smaller quantities can flow away via exports.For the WASDE, which will be released tonight, most participants expect increased global holdings, especially in the United States.

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The fundamental data give the wheat prices a tailwind. However, the Covid-19 pandemic can still cause surprises.

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