The stock markets continued to be volatile between the holidays and turnover declined in some cases. Following price increases last week, prices corrected again significantly at the start of the first full trading week in 2025. However, yesterday's trading day saw futures recoup a large part of the losses. In addition to the technical countermovement, the weaker export figures in particular dampened the buying mood of many market participants at the start of the new year. However, export shipments were a positive surprise, amounting to 412,342 tons and thus almost 21.5% above the previous week's result. This brings the total volume of exports to 12.7 million tons. Compared to the overall result from the same period of the previous year, this represents an increase of 2.5 million tons.The news that the US dollar has lost significant strength again has dampened the mood for wheat prices on Euronext. In contrast to the weaker US dollar, the euro continued to rise, causing traders in particular to fear that export business could be curtailed.
A similar price trend was also seen in corn prices on the CBoT. In yesterday's trading, contracts rose across the board, as a weaker dollar in particular provided support. Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC showed that speculators added 67,859 contracts to their net long position through Dec. 31, resulting in net long positions of 228,806 contracts - the highest level since February 2023. The USDA's weekly export inspection report showed that a total of 847,463 metric tons (33.36 mbu) of corn shipped were recorded in the week ending Jan. 2. This was a 6.62% decrease from the previous week and a 22.42% decrease from the same week last year. Mexico was the main destination with 273,873 tons, followed by Colombia with 139,576 tons and Japan with 133,237 tons. The cumulative volume exported in the current marketing year is now 16,236 million tons (639.2 mbu), which is still 24.49% higher than the same period in the previous 2023/24 season. Market participants are increasingly focusing on the weather in many parts of South America. Argentina in particular is suffering from drought and heat. Long-term models also show no recovery in the coming weeks.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The stock markets were volatile after the holidays and have seen stronger price movements in recent days. This was mainly influenced by weaker export figures and fluctuating currencies. However, the weather is having an increasing influence and the forecasts for the coming weeks in large parts of South America in particular do not look good at the moment. If the forecasts prove to be correct, this should give the bulls a tailwind.
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