The agricultural markets are currently characterized by uncertainty and a high degree of volatility. Cultivation conditions and the planned tariffs remain in the spotlight and are preventing contracts from finding a clear direction. Wheat futures recorded price gains on all three exchanges on Thursday. SRW futures in Chicago rose by 14 to 16 cents at the close of the day. KC HRW futures were 15 to 16 cents higher in the front months of the session. MPLS spring wheat was 9 to 10 cents in the green for the day. Forecasts of low temperatures in the Black Sea region with little snow cover boosted the market. With the current weather forecasts, concerns about possible yield losses are on the rise. Futures in Paris also benefited and moved into the green zone in the slipstream. The USDA's report on export figures also played a role yesterday. The analysts published the report for the week ending January 20 - the report showed a volume of 438,867 tons of wheat sales. This was in line with traders' estimates of 200,000-550,000 tons. Mexico was the largest buyer at 122,000 tons, while 111,000 tons were sold to unknown countries. Sales for 2025/26 were reported at 47,296 tons, at the upper end of the expected 0-50,000 tons. Japan covered 96,725 tons in its weekly tender with grain from the US and Canada, with the US explicitly accounting for 64,545 tons. South Korean importers bought a total of 30,000 tons of US and Canadian goods, of which 22,700 tons were US-specific.
Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) rose by 2 cents to 495.20 US cents per bushel in March. Prices for May rose by 2.60 cents to 507.40 US cents per bushel, while December prices rose by 1.20 cents to 469.60 US cents per bushel. The focus was again on US export sales, which amounted to almost 1.5 million tons of corn for 2024/25 for the week ending January 30. This was at the upper end of the estimate of 0.9 to 1.5 million tons. Compared to the previous week, this was an increase of 8.7 %, and even 21.1 % more compared to the same period last year. Mexico was the largest buyer with 251,700 tons, followed by Japan with 214,000 tons and South Korea with 210,000 tons. Sales for the year 2025/26 amounted to 49,978 tons and were therefore in the middle of the estimate range of 0 to 100,000 tons. Mexico remains the most important buyer of US corn.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Grain prices have recently risen again, mainly due to the delayed introduction of US tariffs and emerging concerns about weather developments in some important growing regions. Prices are also expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks. Trump and the weather are keeping the markets breathing. Against the backdrop of the fundamental data, a clear direction hardly seems possible.
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