Cereals News, 08.05.2025

After a friendly start to the trading day, the maize markets suffered significant losses yesterday. The front futures contracts closed down 6 to 7 cents, with the new crop losing ½ cent. The market was burdened in particular by declining ethanol data and ongoing uncertainty ahead of the upcoming USDA forecasts.

The latest figures from the EIA show a noticeable decline in ethanol production to 1.02 million barrels per day - a drop of 20,000 bpd. Stocks as well as ethanol consumption by refineries and exports also fell noticeably. This data points to a decline in demand from the energy sector, which took the momentum out of the corn market. The export report is eagerly awaited this Thursday morning. Analysts expect an export volume of between 0.7 and 1.4 million tons for old stocks. The figures for the new harvest, on the other hand, are likely to be subdued (expectation: 0 to 300,000 tons). Brazil is also sending dampening signals: with only 178,347 tons of maize exported in April, the largest South American producer is reporting a significant decline compared to the previous month - albeit well above the previous year's level. Attention is now turning to the USDA estimate next week. Analysts are forecasting an average yield of 181.1 bpa and expect total production of around 15.8 billion bushels - a potential price pressure factor if these figures are confirmed.

Wheat also had a volatile start to the week and the wheat markets ended Wednesday with further losses. Chicago SRW futures fell slightly by 1 to 2 cents, while HRW contracts in Kansas City were weaker with more significant declines of between 7 and 9 cents. Spring wheat in Minneapolis also recorded losses of 7 to 8 cents per bushel. Meteorologists expect mostly dry weather in large parts of the US growing regions over the next seven days - especially from Texas to the northern Plains. Although SRW growing regions could receive light rainfall, the overall situation remains critical for further crop development. The market is also eagerly awaiting the export report on Thursday. Bookings of between -100,000 and +150,000 tons are expected for old stocks - so possibly even net cancellations. Expectations for the new crop are between 200,000 and 400,000 tons. Particular attention will be paid to the USDA crop report next Monday. Analysts are currently expecting a total harvest of 1.885 billion bushels, with winter wheat accounting for 1.325 billion. The HRW share is estimated at 748 million bushels, SRW at 342 million and White Winter at 234 million.