The wheat courses on the two important grain exchanges Matif and CBoT were uphill this week. The harvest has already started in France and the threshers are also running in Russia. The majority of hectare yields are disappointing. France's Ministry of Agriculture expects farmers to harvest around 7.1 tons per hectare, compared to 7.9 t / ha in the previous year. The harvest amount has been corrected accordingly. Similar reports come from Ukraine, the Ministry of Agriculture there estimates the harvest in the country 600,000 tons less (26.06 million tons). The Russian analyst IKAR reduced the assessment of the Russian harvest by 1.5 million tons to 79 million tons. This boosts prices on the stock exchange, because the demand side also provides support. Argentina is reducing its forecast as well, so today's WASDE is expected to see the USDA correct the global crop down. On the other side of the Atlantic, future prices can climb to a new high since late April. Meanwhile, traders are positioning themselves for today's WASDE report. The export sales of the past week (until 2.07.) Were published yesterday.Compared to the previous week, there was a significant decline, but a significant increase compared to the comparative week in the previous year. In Germany, most market participants expect the wheat harvest to start in two to three weeks. The barley harvest is currently underway. In northern Germany, however, the ongoing rainfall is hampering the harvest. Barley buyers are currently waiting, the downstream demand from the feed factories make the buyers cautious. There are no large business deals, but isolated businesses show friendly price developments from the producer's point of view. The maize plants in Germany largely benefit from the recent rains and are currently enjoying good growth conditions. At Matif, the courses are recovering after falling in the last two weeks in November to up to 160.00 euros / t. At the start of today's trading day, corn was unchanged from yesterday at EUR 166.25 / t (November 20). At the CBoT, corn prices have increased significantly in the past few days. For one thing, ethanol production is increasing significantly again and inventories are at a reduced level.Heat waves in the growing areas also provide price support.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
If you look back at the weather development in March and April, with the start of the wheat harvest in Germany, similar reports regarding hectare yields are likely to come from Russia and France. Wheat and corn are benefiting from these reports in terms of price, but global wheat supply is still plentiful.
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