Cereals News, 11.04.2025

At the end of the trading week, the agricultural futures markets are divided: While corn prices are benefiting from bullish impulses from the USDA WASDE report and political developments, wheat prices are coming under pressure in both the US and Europe.
Corn futures on the CBoT are continuing their upward trend. The trend was driven by the latest WASDE report, which lowered US ending stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels. This was due to a 100 million bushel increase in the export forecast despite a 25 million bushel reduction in the "Feed & Residual" category. The leading May and July contracts rose by 5 to 9 US cents over the course of the week and closed at 474.00 and 480.5 US cents/bushel respectively. Political signals also provided support: President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for selected countries - excluding China - which gave the markets an additional boost. On the export side, 785,583 tons of corn were sold in the week to 3 April - a 13-week low, but in line with expectations. The largest buyers were South Korea (204,200 tons), Colombia (196,700 tons) and Japan (180,800 tons). A further 236,200 tons were sold for the coming marketing year 2025/26, mostly to Mexico. The EIA data also had a fundamental impact: US ethanol production fell to 1.021 million bpd, while inventories rose to 27.034 million barrels. On the export side, 174,000 bpd of ethanol were reported. On Euronext in Paris, corn contracts closed firmer at the start of the week. However, the most traded June 25 contract lost € 2.25/t again at the end of the week and was quoted at € 208.00/t (-1.07 %).
The development in the wheat sector was quite different: the latest WASDE report surprised with an increase in US wheat ending stocks of 27 million bushels to 846 million bushels - well above expectations. As a result, futures on the CBoT fell by 2 to 5 US cents in the front months. Export sales were also weaker: 107,280 tons for the old crop, with the largest quantities going to an unknown buyer (92,800 tons) and Nigeria (40,000 tons). The weakness continued on the MATIF: the May 25 futures contract fell to 216.50 €/t (-1.48 %), while the September 25 contract dropped by 3.75 €/t to 213.00 €/t. The downward trend had already become apparent in the middle of the week - with a fall of up to 5.00 €/t to 219.75 €/t in the May contract. The increase in the EU wheat harvest forecast to 128.1 million tons by the EU Commission also had a negative impact.