At midweek, market participants on the US wheat markets were once again divided. Chicago futures were down 2 to 3 cents at the close of trading. KC futures also rose slightly, while futures in Minneapolis closed 2 to 3 cents lower. Trading has also been volatile in recent days. Experts emphasized in a survey that the current political developments are making investors uncertain and it is difficult to find a clear direction. In addition to the tariffs, the focus is also shifting back to the weather. Meteorologists are forecasting drier weather conditions for the Southern Plains. In Texas and parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in particular, little to no precipitation is expected until March 20. This could have an impact on wheat stocks in these regions and slow down any southward movement. Meanwhile, Canada is expecting an increase in wheat acreage in 2025. According to Statistics Canada's current planting intentions, the wheat area is expected to grow by 2.6 % to 27.475 million acres. The majority of this growth is accounted for by spring wheat, the acreage of which has increased by 2.5 % year-on-year to 19.42 million acres. Durum wheat acreage, on the other hand, remains largely unchanged at 6.36 million acres. Looking ahead to US export sales, which will be released on Thursday morning, traders expect sales of between 275,000 and 650,000 tons for old crop wheat. For the 2025/26 season, sales are forecast between 0 and 100,000 tons. On an international level, some importing countries are showing renewed activity and Algeria bought wheat in a tender on Wednesday. Market observers assume that the country has ordered between 500,000 and 650,000 tons. On this side of the Pacific, futures were able to hold their ground somewhat and recorded moderate price gains. The leading May gained 2.00 euros/tonne to 223.25 euros/tonne. In the case of maize, the signs were once again bright, sometimes deep red. Futures fell by 6 to 10 cents by the close of trading, with the front months in particular recording the sharpest declines. New developments in the transatlantic trade dispute are putting additional pressure on the maize market. The European Union is planning retaliatory tariffs from the beginning of April in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. These measures will also affect maize. Although the EU currently only has small stocks of US corn, the United States has already delivered 2.47 million tons of corn to the EU this year. Canada could also join the tariff dispute. The Canadian energy minister explained that potential retaliatory tariffs on US goods could primarily affect ethanol - a critical factor for the corn market. These tariffs could be imposed in a second round if the US proceeds with the delayed USMCA tariffs on April 2. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the publication of export sales on Thursday morning. Analysts expect export bookings for corn from the old harvest of between 0.75 and 1.4 million tons for the week up to 6 March. For the new crop, sales of between 0 and 100,000 tons are expected. Corn trading on Euronext was emotionless in the middle of the week. The leading futures stood still, while the trailing contracts recorded marginal gains.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The wheat markets are currently in a phase of uncertainty and are characterized by volatility due to volatile trading conditions and geopolitical tensions. Accordingly, future price trends remain difficult to predict in light of global political and economic challenges. Above all, however, the US tariffs and the reaction of the countries affected, as well as the weather, could give prices a clear direction, at least temporarily.
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