On Thursday, US wheat prices stabilized after a series of losses. Another volatile week is thus drawing to a close. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), the March contract rose by 3.50 US cents to 577.75 US cents per bushel (202.72 €/t). In Kansas, the front dates also rose and the green signs also prevailed in Minneapolis. The USDA export data published yesterday provided a tailwind. These showed that around 569,600 tons had been ordered by last Thursday. Compared to the previous week's figure, this is an increase of almost 30 %. The result is also well above the average of the last four weeks. The largest buyer was Mexico with an order volume of 128,000 tons. Overall, wheat exports for the current season amount to 19.16 million tons, an increase of nine percent compared to the same period last year. The volume shipped was 577,300 tons, 84 per cent above the four-week average. The weather also provided bullish impetus yesterday. Another onset of winter is expected, especially in the Midwest. Temperatures well below freezing could pose a threat to stocks.
On the other hand, optimistic news came from the European region. Analysts Strategie Grains have raised their forecast for the European wheat harvest. With an increase of 0.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast to 127.7 million tons. Euronext wheat was unable to end its slide and closed the day in red territory. The March contract recorded a loss of €1.00 to €231.00 per tonne.
Meanwhile, maize prices in the USA continued their positive trend on Thursday. Here too, USDA export data was the main reason for the price increase. Last week, 1.65 million tons of corn were ordered for the 2024/25 season, exceeding the four-week average by 20 per cent. In total, maize exports to date have reached 46.41 million tons, an increase of 28% compared to the previous season. However, the report from the Brazilian agricultural authority kept profits in check. It now estimates Brazilian maize production at 122 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons. A higher area under cultivation is the main reason for this correction. The USDA, on the other hand, reduced its forecast for Brazil to 126 million tons. There have been differences in estimates between the two institutions for some time. The recent rainfall in Argentina brought relief to producers. However, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange remains cautious in its assessment. The proportion of maize stocks rated as good to excellent fell to 16 percent, while 33 percent were classified as weak. In the previous week, these figures were 25 and 26 percent respectively.
Corn prices on Euronext stabilized slightly. The March contract recorded an increase of €0.50 to €214.25/t.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
US wheat prices recovered after recent losses, mainly due to robust export figures and weather-related uncertainties. In Europe, however, the wheat market remains under pressure as higher harvest expectations could increase supply. Corn prices are benefiting from strong export demand, although rising Brazilian production could have a dampening effect on prices in the long term. Overall, the market remains characterized by uncertain forecasts and weather risks and continues to be volatile.
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