Cereals News, 15.05.2025

US corn futures closed Wednesday's trading with moderate premiums. The front contracts rose by 2 to 3 cents, while the new December futures fell slightly by ½ cent. The May contract was withdrawn from the market at the close of trading. The national average cash price (CmdtyView) rose by 3 cents to 4.17 ¾ USD/bu. The trading week to date has been characterized by a slight upward correction after prices came under pressure at the start of the week. On Tuesday, front months still fell by 4 to 6 cents, which was mainly due to the rapid US sowing season and rising South American harvest expectations. However, prices stabilized slightly towards the middle of the week. Weather forecasts for the coming week point to widespread rainfall - from the Northern Plains to the Eastern Corn Belt (ECB). While this could slow down further sowing progress, the rainfall is seen as positive for areas that have already been sown. On Thursday morning, the USDA will publish the weekly export sales. The market is expecting export bookings for old crop corn in a range of 0.9 to 1.5 million tons. New crop sales are estimated at 350,000 to 600,000 tons. The figures could provide impetus for the short-term market direction. The latest data from the EIA had a somewhat negative effect: ethanol production fell to 993,000 barrels per day in the week ending May 9 - a drop of 27,000 barrels compared to the previous week and the first time since September below the 1 million bpd mark. At the same time, ethanol stocks rose by 254,000 barrels to a total of 25.445 million barrels. The feed of raw materials into refineries increased slightly to 929,000 barrels per day.

The picture on Euronext is similar: Paris corn prices are under pressure, mainly due to strong competition from overseas.

The US wheat market showed its firmer side in the middle of the week. The winter wheat exchanges recorded noticeable gains: Chicago SRW futures were up 7 to 8 cents at the close of trading, while Kansas City HRW futures were up as much as 10 to 12 cents. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures fell by 3 to 4 cents, continuing their weaker trend. The wheat market has been volatile so far this week: after a subdued start to the week on Monday, the turnaround Tuesday pattern led to the first price gains in winter wheat, which were further extended on Wednesday. In the trading week to date, SRW and HRW futures together have gained around 15-20 cents. Spring wheat, on the other hand, has not yet been able to benefit from the strength and has lost around 5 cents over the course of the week. Weather forecasts call for precipitation in the SRW area in the coming days. However, large parts of the HRW growing region - particularly southwest Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle - will remain dry. This is creating new yield uncertainties. The focus is currently on the annual Hard Red Wheat Tour in Kansas. The results of the first route were reported at 50.5 bushels/acre - a value that is both above last year's level (49.9 bpa) and at a 4-year high. The results of the second day are expected on Thursday evening. The USDA's weekly export data is expected Thursday morning. Analysts are forecasting a range of net withdrawals to moderate net purchases of 100,000 tons for the old crop. Bookings of between 350,000 and 600,000 tons are expected for the new 2025/26 season. A positive signal came from the international market: Algeria has purchased around 660,000 tons of wheat in a current tender - a possible sign of continued solid demand from North Africa.

Wheat futures on Euronext in Paris were little changed recently, having previously fallen to new contract lows. Prices recovered slightly in line with the US stock markets as traders watched to see if the recent fall in prices would boost import demand. Despite the slight recovery, prices remain under pressure. Improved weather conditions in the US and the Black Sea region are increasing competition on the export market, which is weighing on European prices.