15.
11.24
Weather conditions and geopolitical factors weigh on prices

Cereals News, 15.11.2024

Bullish
  • Higher maize export forecast from Brazil
  • Private maize sales
Bearish
  • Favorable weather conditions in the USA, Russia and Ukraine
  • Rising US dollar
  • Weak market sentiment and uncertainty about demand

The maize and wheat markets were under pressure in the past trading week. This was due to a wide variety of factors, such as weather conditions and geopolitical factors, which affected Matif and CBot prices. At the beginning of the trading week, the maize markets started in the red. This downward trend continued in recent trading days, as the weaker wheat markets also pushed northwards. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), December futures recorded a decline. Positive export news from Brazil, which raised its corn export forecast for November to 5.38 million tons, was only able to curb the losses on the CBoT to a limited extent. Reports of private maize export sales to Mexico totalled 401,357 tons on Wednesday. The wheat markets in the USA were also under pressure. Chicago SRW wheat also posted a decline. A major factor in the bearish momentum was the positive weather forecast for the southern Plains, which could improve growing conditions for winter wheat in the US. Rainfall in recent days should stabilize plant conditions. Better growing conditions were also reported in Russia and the Ukraine, which put further pressure on wheat prices. In addition, last week's strengthening of the US dollar provided further selling impetus. The outlook for winter wheat stocks is positive, but this development is also weighing on the US wheat market. In Europe, Euronext wheat prices also reacted to global market developments, with the December wheat price falling. Overall, the week was characterized by weak market sentiment. Fundamental data hardly changed over the past week, meaning that trading was also rather lacking in momentum.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The pressure on the corn and wheat markets resulted from both the improved weather conditions in the main growing regions of the USA and Russia and the rising US dollar. Export news from Brazil was unable to significantly curb market losses, and uncertainty about future demand continued to contribute to the weakness of the markets.

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