On Euronext, wheat contracts recovered and rose moderately. In addition to a favorable euro exchange rate, the continued rise in export prices around the Black Sea provided a buying mood. Export prices on the Russian Black Sea coast recently reached around USD 230 per tonne, which represents an increase of USD 10 per tonne within two weeks. Since the beginning of the season, prices have fluctuated between 215 and 220 US dollars per ton. By October 7, 83.8 million tons (before drying) had been harvested. In the first three months of the season, Russian traders exported around 14.73 million tons of wheat. On Friday, the Moscow Ministry of Agriculture will hold a meeting with grain exporters to discuss possible export restrictions. At the same time, winter sowing is proving difficult. So far, 13 of the planned 20 million hectares of winter grain have been sown. Due to a lack of rainfall in the south of Russia, there are still difficulties with field work.
On the CBoT, wheat futures recovered slightly yesterday after a weak start at the beginning of this week. December's most traded commodity rose by 5.5 US cents to 198.02 euros per tonne. In particular, the sluggish progress in sowing gave the bulls back the lead. According to USD analysts, just under 64% of the fields have been sown so far, which is 2% below the previous year's average. Around 35% of the plants have emerged so far. The latest export news also provided additional bullish impetus. Sales of over 120,000 tons to Mexico were reported. Despite reported rainfall in the southern states, the weather could again cause problems. In Argentina, strong Antarctic winds could make growing conditions even more difficult and consequently affect yields.
Corn prices rose in yesterday's trading on both Euronext and CBoT. Support also came from the latest export reports. The USDA confirmed sales of 1.62 million tons to Mexico. Just under 1.04 million tons are to be shipped in the current season, with the remaining volume planned for the coming season. A further sale of 332,000 tons with an unknown destination was also announced.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Following the publication of the WASDE report, which held few surprises overall, market participants are once again focusing on the weather in many countries. Despite the rainfall in the southern US states, the situation remains tense. The drought could also continue to cause problems in Russia. If Russian export prices in particular continue to rise, this could also support the price level on the stock exchanges.
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