Wheat futures have been under pressure on all three US stock exchanges since the beginning of the week. Futures continued to fall in yesterday's trading. On the Chicago exchange, the settlement price for the March futures contract was the equivalent of 192.07 euros/tonne, a fall of 3.75 US dollars. In Kansas and also in Minneapolis, the red signs prevailed. MPLS spring wheat futures closed down 3 to 5 cents. Above all, the more than solid harvest prospects in Australia and Argentina dampened the buying mood. Even the news that analysts at Sovecon expect the harvest to shrink to 78.7 million tons could not help the bulls to take the lead. In addition, favorable offers from Argentina are exerting pressure on international wheat prices. According to traders, some of the offers are even lower than the Russian prices. The current development of the US dollar is also dampening the mood of US traders. The firmer exchange rate is reducing the attractiveness of US products and importers are preferring cheaper offers, such as those from Argentina. The USDA will release the latest export sales data this Thursday morning, with the trade expecting wheat sales between 225,000 tons and 550,000 tons for 2024/25 and 0-50,000 tons for 2025/26. Meanwhile, importing countries are once again active on the market. The state grain company is looking for 100,000 tons of soft wheat and durum wheat in a tender. The tender runs until this evening. Algeria has already bought in the past few days, with reports of a quantity of 350,000 to 500,000 tons. The price range is said to be between 340 and 352 US dollars per tonne. The USA, Canada and Australia are believed to be the countries of purchase. South Korea is also looking for grain. One importer is looking for 90,000 tons of wheat from the USA and Canada. Of this, 50,000 tons must come from the USA itself.
The course of the week has not been positive for maize so far. For the fifth trading day in a row, maize futures recorded predominantly losses. The soybean market was the main source of bearish sentiment. A very good harvest is expected in the southern hemisphere in particular. However, the harvest forecasts are not only looking good for oilseeds. The growing conditions for maize itself are also developing very well, so that very good yields are expected. The losses were curbed by yesterday's announcement by the US government. According to government information, it will be permitted to blend up to 15% ethanol into fuels throughout the year. Previously, no ethanol was allowed to be blended in the summer, from June to September. Market participants and traders are hoping that this will increase demand for ethanol.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
On the grain markets, the main focus is currently on the growing conditions and harvest forecasts of the major producing countries. South America and Australia in particular are expecting very good yields, which in turn is putting pressure on prices on the exchanges. The reduced Russian harvest forecasts, on the other hand, have not yet allowed the bulls to take the lead in the long term. However, market participants continue to emphasize that rising export prices on the Black Sea could provide bullish impetus. However, many analysts doubt whether this will ultimately be enough to turn the market around. It remains volatile, and the further development of grain stocks in particular could point the way.
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