Cereals News, 21.03.2025

Shortly before the weekend, wheat futures were unable to recoup their losses. They again ended trading in the red. Market participants are currently reporting in a survey that it is difficult to position themselves in the current market situation. Yesterday, wheat prices came under pressure mainly due to the weak export sales report. In Chicago, futures fell by 6 to 7 cents over the course of the day. Contracts in Kansas City also fell further on Thursday, losing 7 to 9 cents. In Minneapolis, futures followed the general downward trend and were also weaker. In addition, the strength of the US dollar continued to weigh on the market. Yesterday morning's USDA data on export sales showed the lowest level of the new year at 248,849 tons. This was well below estimates, which ranged from 300,000 to 700,000 tons for the old crop. Vietnam bought 69,500 tons, while Indonesia purchased 62,000 tons. Around 123,800 tons were destined for unknown destinations. Bookings for the new crop, on the other hand, were well above expectations of 25,000 to 100,000 tons at 491,092 tons. The International Grains Council's monthly report published this morning shows that wheat production for 2024/25 has risen by 2 million tons to 799 million tons, while stocks have increased by 1 million tons to 265 million tons. The first outlook for 2025/26 forecasts an increase in production of 8 million tons year-on-year. At the same time, however, consumption is expected to increase, meaning that expected inventories will fall by 6 million tons to 259 million tons.

On Euronext, wheat contracts were unable to escape the red signs. On the German cash market, producers remain reluctant to sell grain. While prices were previously considered too low, the recent rise on the international exchanges is now raising hopes of higher prices. Mills are showing interest in deliveries for the period April to June, while Swiss buyers have withdrawn from the market. Demand from the compound feed industry remains subdued.

Corn futures closed Thursday up 6 to 7 cents on the forward dates, while the December new crop contract gained 1 ½ cents. Export sales data released this morning showed bookings of 1.497 million tons, above estimates of 0.8 to 1.7 million tons for old crop corn in the week ending March 13. This was a four-week high and 26.2% higher than the same week last year. Japan was the largest buyer with 487,700 tons, followed by South Korea with 397,200 tons and Mexico with 303,700 tons. However, unknown destinations canceled around 383,600 tonnes. At 61,375 tons, sales for the 2025/26 harvest were in the middle of the expected range of 0 to 100,000 tons. On Wednesday, the International Grains Council raised its estimate for global maize production in 2024/25 by 1 million tons, but at the same time lowered its forecast for exports by 1 million tons to 274 million tons. The first forecast for 2025/26 assumes an increase in production of 52 million tons year-on-year, while stocks are estimated at 280 million tons. From Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the Argentinian corn harvest is 14% complete.

On Euronext, corn futures were unable to find a clear direction. The front dates barely moved or only rose slightly, while the back dates slipped into the red. On the German cash market, farmers' willingness to sell remains subdued and prices are stable compared to the previous week.