The wheat market was weaker again in the middle of the week. In Chicago, SRW wheat contracts fell by 3 to 5 US cents on Thursday. Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis also closed with losses of 3 to 4 US cents. Only the market in Kansas City (HRW) was able to partially escape the overall downward trend and traded mixed. The market continues to be burdened by high global inventories and a generally weaker trading environment. As a result, the initial bullish trend at the beginning of the week did not continue. However, the latest export figures had a positive effect: 882,202 tons of US wheat were sold for the new 2025/26 harvest in the reporting week up to 15 May - a high for the current marketing year. Particularly noteworthy is the broad buyer structure with larger quantities for unknown destinations (153,300 tons), the Philippines (137,000 tons) and Japan (102,400 tons). This contrasts with negative signals for old stocks: Net reductions of 13,373 tons were reported for the current season - well below the expected range of 100,000 to -200,000 tons. These declining stocks indicate a continued demand deficit. In addition, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported stable global wheat production of 806 million tons for 2025/26 in its monthly assessment, with a simultaneous reduction in forecast use of 1 million tons. Global stocks are thus up by 2 million tons to 262 million tons - a signal of sufficient availability and a price-dampening surplus.
On Euronext, wheat futures were unable to escape the weak conditions and slipped into the red. September futures fell by 2.75 euros/tonne to 209.25 euros/tonne.
The corn market showed a mixed trend on Thursday. While the July contract on the CBoT rose by 2 US cents, the other futures were down between 1 and 3 US cents. The average national cash price (CmdtyView) also rose by 2.5 US cents to 4.36 ¼ USD/bushel. Trading activity was significantly influenced by the latest export figures and global supply data. The export business had a supportive effect: US export sales of corn totalled 1.19 million tons in the reporting week to 15 May, which was in line with expectations. Even though this represented a 29% decline compared to the previous week, sales were still around 30.7% higher than the previous year - a positive signal for long-term demand. The main buyers were Japan (370,900 tons), Mexico (219,300 tons) and Colombia (153,100 tons). For the new 2025/26 harvest, 218,371 tons of corn were sold, mainly to Colombia (100,000 tons) and Costa Rica (75,400 tons), which also indicates solid early interest. According to the latest report from the International Grains Council (IGC), global maize production for the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated to be 3 million tons higher. Global ending stocks will also increase by 3 million tons to 284 million tons. This increase in supply is dampening market expectations and increasing price pressure in the longer term.
On Euronext, maize contracts held their ground against wheat and recorded moderate gains. Prices for August corn rose by 2.00 euros/tonne to 207.25 euros/tonne. The extent to which the current weather situation and the drought will affect stocks is currently the focus of attention. Market observers and weather experts fear that this could result in considerable yield losses.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets for wheat and maize are currently being influenced by opposing impulses. While robust export figures are creating demand optimism, rising global inventories and a weaker trading environment are weighing on price levels. Short-term developments are likely to depend heavily on weather events and further demand stimuli, meaning that the stock markets will remain volatile. Futures currently seem to be struggling to find a clear direction.
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