The bullish mood prevailed on all three US stock exchanges on Thursday. Algeria's purchase of 1.17 million tons of wheat caused a stir, as the originally reported quantities were almost doubled. The news brightened the mood and helped the bulls to take the lead. Meanwhile, global wheat production continues to be the focus of market participants, especially the forecasts from Russia and the favorable offers from the Black Sea region. The Russian analyst firm IKAR is forecasting a decline in wheat exports to 41 million tons in 2025/26. This would mean a decline in Russia's market share from 25% to 20%, which could have a significant impact on global wheat markets and prices.
US corn futures have also followed the northward trend, recording their highest prices since June after the Christmas break. This development was supported by the upcoming weekly EIA data, which was postponed to Friday morning. The market expects ethanol production to remain stable and continue above 1.1 million barrels per day, which is positive news for corn producers.
Export sales data, which will also be released on Friday morning, could also boost the market. The trade is expecting bookings totaling 1 to 1.6 million tons of corn for the week ending December 19 and another 0 to 50,000 tons for the following year 2025/26. These expectations reflect the continued demand for corn, especially from Brazil, where exports are estimated at 4.1 million tons for December, unchanged from the previous estimate, according to ANEC.
On Euronext, the stock market is starting trading again today after a positive half-day session on December 23.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
After the holiday break, US futures were able to close the first trading session on a positive note. Despite the solid harvest prospects, especially in the southern hemisphere, global demand appears to have risen again recently and is providing bullish impetus. The news that Russia's influence due to reduced exports could further reduce price pressure and boost wheat in particular.
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