28.
03.25
Volatile grain markets - weather and geopolitics dominate

Cereals News, 28.03.2025

Bullish
  • Global import countries active
  • Uncertainty Weather conditions in the USA
  • Low global wheat stocks
Bearish
  • Precipitation in important growing areas
  • Weak US export sales
  • US trade restrictions & export taxes

US wheat futures were mixed on the three exchanges on Thursday. In Chicago, futures fell by 3 to 4 cents at the close, mainly due to the reported rainfall in the major growing regions. Contracts in Kansas City recovered from a weak start on the exchange and rose by 1 to 2 cents by the close. Wheat in Minneapolis was also firmer and closed up 2 to 4 cents on Thursday. This marks the end of another volatile week. The peace negotiations in the geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the weather are currently determining the direction. The precipitation reported for next week in large parts of the SRW region had a bearish effect. The HRW regions are relatively dry right now, with the exception of the eastern portions of the Southern Plains. Export sales data released this morning by the USDA shows that only 100,325 tons were sold for 2024/25 during the week of March 20. Japan was the largest buyer at 72,000 tons, while 53,400 tons were sold to Nigeria. There were also bookings of 125,500 tons for unknown destinations. At 11,200 tons, sales of wheat from the new harvest were below estimates of 100,000 to 300,000 tons. Meanwhile, Taiwanese importers bought a total of 100,000 tons of US wheat overnight.

On Euronext, the bears prevailed shortly before the weekend and caused losses.

The leading May contract fell by 3.75 euros per tonne to 218.25 euros per tonne. Corn futures recorded only marginal losses on Thursday as contracts overcame the initial weakness and recovered during the course of the day. Export sales for the week ending March 20 were reported at 1.04 million tons for the old crop. This was 30.5% less than in the previous week and 13.8% less than in the same period last year. Japan was the largest buyer with 415,300 tons, while 309,900 tons were sold to Mexico and 212,900 tons to Colombia. Sales of maize from the new harvest were disappointing and were reported at 0 tons.

Corn futures on Euronext also closed in the red on Thursday. The May contract recorded a loss of 1.75 euros per tonne to 212.00 euros per tonne.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The US wheat markets were mixed on Thursday, while Euronext futures were weaker ahead of the weekend. Weather conditions, in particular the announced rainfall, and geopolitical uncertainties continued to influence price trends this week. Market volatility remains high and the influence of external factors is likely to continue to play a key role. The peace negotiations in particular could once again have a significant impact on grain prices if they are successful.

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