Getreide Cockpit, 27.10.2017

Hopes for rising grain prices are increasing - entitled ?! On the occasion of several meetings of grain traders at national and international level, the hope was expressed that the weak post-harvest prices would turn into a rising phase no later than next year . However, the assumption that the current price rises on the Paris stock exchange are the first precursors to this is an overinterpretation.The reasons for these recent price rises have been the main reasons for the decline in the euro , which has been confirmed by the recent decisions of the ECB. The continuation of the low to zero interest rate policy is not very attractive for money investments in the euro area. A low euro rate is beneficial for the EU's wheat exports, as the competition with other suppliers is increasing. Due to the necessary imports of maize, the import price becomes more expensive , which also affects the domestic quotations. Both prices have risen on the Paris stock exchange .The latest estimates for the supply of cereals at world level, including IGC, USDA and others, also provide hope for rising prices. Increasingly, fracture sites are crystallizing the supposedly high supply situation. The high supply level on the wheat market is mainly due to the high non-exportable wheat stocks of China . The upcoming Australian crop falls from 52 to 32 million tonnes ; the previous high export volumes are not available.Also the US harvest result is only average of previous years and remains by 10% behind the previous year. According to recent EU estimates, the EU harvest 2017/18 is only slightly higher than the weak previous year.The Russian harvest and export volumes , which hitherto have prevented any spa recovery to the top due to undercutting in tendering procedures, are outstanding . There are increasing indications that this development has come to an end.

Darüberhinaus wird sich mit dem Wintereinbruch in Russland herausstellen, inwieweit die Nachschublogistik an die Exporthäfen in der Lage ist, die Ausfuhrmengen bereitzustellen. Je nach Witterungsverhältnissen stellt sich eine mehr oder weniger intensive  und andauernde Winterpause ein.This could create air for the permanent import requirements of the importing countries. In fact, in the spring months, the endings show a clear upward trend. However, the trees also do not grow into the sky. The basic supply situation is still very good.And the remaining Russian export potentials will again be available to a considerable extent after the winter . The further developments will then be shaped by the prospects for the new crop.