Getreide News, 01/12/2024

Grain prices were clearly under selling pressure this week. This Friday, the front month of March closed with a red sign on Euronext/Matif and over the week it also went south at 4.75 euros/t. On Friday at the closing bell, the price for wheat was still at 216 euros/t on the display board. Corn also remained low and closed today, Friday, at 190 euros/t in the front month of March. This means that the negative trend continues. Things also went south at the CBoT. Trading remains quiet on the domestic cash markets. Farmers are still expecting significant grain stocks in their warehouses. However, demand remains manageable. When it comes to corn in particular, many buyers are expecting deliveries from Eastern Europe in the coming weeks. Overall, export competition from the Black Sea is having a negative impact. Russia's export prices are usually noticeably lower than those of Americans or Europeans. Europe's wheat exports in the new calendar year are also below the volumes of the previous year, as are US exports, which are well behind the export volumes of the previous year. In addition to the weakening demand, the first estimate by the umbrella organization of the European agricultural trade Coceral is also weighing on price developments.Including durum wheat, Coceral expects the EU wheat harvest to be 700,000 tonnes higher in 2024. Although the cultivated areas and harvest expectations are likely to be lower in Germany, France and Poland due to the weather, this could be offset by countries such as Spain or Sweden. The focus of the market this week was the fresh figures from the WASDE report, which was published this Friday. For wheat, global production volumes were estimated to be higher compared to the December WASDE. In addition, the initial stocks were also estimated to be higher. With global production of 784.91 million tons and consumption of 796.44 million tons, final stocks of 260.58 million tons are expected at the end of the current marketing year. These are significantly below those of the previous year but also higher than previously expected. Production expectations were adjusted, particularly for Russia and Ukraine. The USDA increased harvest expectations for corn. At 389.69 million tons, US production is higher than previously expected. The analysts were eagerly awaiting the forecasts for South America. The forecast for Brazil was reduced by 2 million tons.Globally, however, the corn harvest is expected to be higher and the final stocks are also estimated to be 10 million tonnes higher than in December. There was no change in the harvest forecast for Argentina.