The wheat market was predominantly weak last week. On the US stock exchanges, the continuing harvest pressure depressed prices, particularly for SRW and spring wheat. Only HRW wheat in Kansas was able to stabilize somewhat towards the end. The strong US dollar put additional pressure as it further reduced export opportunities. The disappointing weekly US export shipments increased concerns about a decline in foreign demand. The Russian export forecast was also revised significantly upwards, which increased international price pressure. Although yield prospects in parts of Europe and Ukraine have recently deteriorated slightly, this was not enough to offset the global supply glut. Bangladesh's purchase of wheat from the USA and an export order to Nigeria provided individual rays of hope, but could fizzle out in the shadow of the still dominant surplus concerns. Euronext wheat followed the international downward trend for long stretches, but benefited from the weak euro in between.
Corn was also under downward pressure for much of the week. Good growing conditions in the USA, strong stock valuations and optimistic long-term forecasts underpin expectations of an above-average harvest. The upward trend in the US dollar also dampened export prospects. Nevertheless, international demand remained unbroken. The USDA reported numerous large sales, particularly to Asia and South America. The weekly export figures were also strong and confirmed the robust demand. Towards the end of the week, these impulses led to a slight price recovery. On Euronext, however, the corn price remained stable to weaker despite firm US data.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The global grain market remains under the impression of an expected oversupply. For wheat in particular, there is much to suggest that the seasonal price pressure from the harvest in the northern hemisphere is not yet over. HRW wheat has recently firmed somewhat, but the environment remains difficult here too. In the case of maize, the recent surge in demand could provide at least temporary support, but without weather-related restrictions, the upside potential remains limited. The decisive factor will be whether the export momentum continues and whether there are regional weather-related yield losses. Until then, market sentiment will remain depressed overall.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
