Getreide News, 02/02/2024

Wheat and corn were under pressure on both the stock exchanges and cash markets this week. Yesterday the front month March 24 for wheat closed with a closing price of 212.50 euros. Although it was quoted slightly higher than the day before, on Friday of last week it was still at 214.75 euros/t on the Paris stock exchange's display board. Corn closed yesterday at 180.75 euros/t, 2 euros lower than on Friday of the previous week. At the start of today's trading day, there are more positive developments. A slightly different development emerged at the CBoT. Wheat and corn increased marginally here. International competition from Russia and Ukraine continues to be the main reason for the setbacks in the European market. In a special report, the US Department of Agriculture assumes that Ukraine will be able to export significantly more wheat this season than previously assumed. The previous year's level is also expected to be exceeded by a good 3 percent. Instead of the previous 14 million tons of wheat exports, 17.7 million tons are now expected. This significant forecast increase is due to increased loading capacities in the Ukrainian ports. The forecast was confirmed by the Ukrainian government. According to official figures, 4.3 million were registered in January. Tons of agricultural goods were loaded via the Black Sea ports; in December there were even 4.8 million tons. This means that Ukraine has returned to pre-war levels and has also exceeded the best monthly value from the grain corridor era. Europe's exports have stabilized somewhat in the last three weeks, but at 453,188 tons in the 31st calendar week, they are still well below the average of 618,000 tons for all previous calendar weeks in the marketing year. The seasonal export count has now reached 18.23 million tonnes, compared to 19.24 million tonnes last year. At 3.37 million tons, barley exports are above the previous year's level of 3.37 million tons. China in particular has once again placed significantly larger orders in Europe. Across the Atlantic, export figures also play an important role. These were also disappointing this week and were once again below the level of the previous week. When it comes to corn in particular, good global availability is putting pressure on prices. The European harvest was significantly better than last year, which is also reflected in lower export volumes compared to the previous year. IGC and USDA have recently revised global harvest expectations upwards again in their forecasts. The ongoing rapid harvest in Brazil is putting additional pressure on prices. Although most analysts expect lower harvest results for the first corn harvest due to weather developments during the main vegetation phase, the result is still likely to be extensive. Argentina and Brazil had recently recorded significantly better weather conditions. Friendly US export sales released yesterday, as well as high processing levels of corn into alcohol and food, failed to push the market into profit yesterday. Corn prices are once again under latent selling pressure in pre-market trading on the CBoT this Friday.