Getreide News, 02/17/2023

Wheat prices on the Euronext/Matif have been falling again since the middle of the week. There was also a loss on a weekly basis until yesterday, Thursday. The March date closed the penultimate trading day of the week with a daily loss of EUR 3 and a closing price of EUR 293.75 per ton. Corn, on the other hand, was able to increase on a weekly basis. With a closing price of EUR 294 yesterday, the daily trends were weaker than on Wednesday, but the price was also higher than last Friday (closing price EUR 291.75). The front month for corn has been higher than the front month for wheat since Tuesday of this week. This trend can also be seen with the start of trading on Friday. Corn and wheat fall in the first hour of trading. On the CBoT, both corn and wheat showed red signs in the weekly loss. At the beginning of the week, prices were still being driven by concerns about the future of the grain agreement with Ukraine. Russian officials were critical of the continuation at the end of last week. This was also substantiated earlier this week by the Russian Foreign Ministry, which saw few advantages for Russia.In particular, the criticism is that Western states directly or indirectly sanction Russian agricultural goods or give Russian goods a wide berth. In terms of volume, however, Russian wheat exports are clearly above the level of the previous year. The current estimates for February exports are around 1 million tons above the volume achieved in February 2022. France's Ministry of Agriculture published new figures on the acreage there on Wednesday. According to this, farmers there planted wheat on 4.76 million hectares in autumn, an area increase of 2 percent compared to the previous year. The acreage for barley has also increased in the neighboring country. However, the export forecast for the current financial year has been corrected under below. Instead of the previous 10.6 million tons of third-country exports, France now expects a volume of 10.45 million tons. The correction is justified, among other things, with the large Russian competition. At the beginning of the week, prices on the CBoT were still being driven by the dry prospects for the main growing areas and the associated deteriorating condition assessments. Parts of Texas and Kansas have been declared drought zones. Especially in areas of Kansas the sowing of spring wheat is imminent.On the other hand, the renewed strength of the US dollar is putting pressure on market participants' export fantasies. Weekly export sales also disappointed, coming in at 209,000 tonnes, at the lower end of previously published analyst expectations. The International Grains Council has revised downwards its forecast for global corn production due to the drought in Argentina. In the South American country it remains dry and hot, so that the plants suffer significantly. The harvest should start there at the end of April. The grain exchanges in Argentina have also recently corrected their production forecasts downwards. US exports were satisfactory this week. With sales of 1.12 million tons from the old and the coming harvest, the optimistic expectations were met. The European corn market continues to be well supplied. Dutch buyers are active in parts of western Germany. Eastern feed mixing plants are increasingly buying goods in Poland and the Czech Republic. Overall, however, cash market activity remains low.