Getreide News, 03/31/2023

This week, grain prices as a whole recovered quite a bit from the sharp losses recorded following the extension of the grain deal. Yesterday, Thursday, the closing price for wheat in the front month of May 2023 was 261.75 euros/t. Last week, Thursday, EUR 245.00 per ton was quoted on the Euronext/Matif. In the same period, corn went north from EUR 242.75 to EUR 259.00 yesterday evening. A similar trend was also evident at the CBoT for wheat and corn. As a result, spot market prices in Germany were also able to recover. The news situation has been quite extensive in the past week. In the EU's "Short-Term Outlook" for the agricultural markets in 2023, published yesterday, the Commission assumes grain production of 288.4 million tons, which corresponds to an increase of 8.6%. The increase is due to the better expected corn yields compared to the previous year and higher barley production. The acreage for winter wheat is likely to have remained about the same. Effective trade in grain continues to run smoothly in Germany overall.Although the agricultural sector's willingness to sell has increased again, buyers are showing a little more restraint after the recent recovery rally. In southern Germany in particular, there is also price competition from offers from Eastern Europe. According to dealer circles, dealers from the Czech Republic in particular are offering grain around 10 euros below the local cash market prices and are thus creating pressure. Eastern European grain companies are also under pressure overall. Significantly expanded and cheap grain deliveries that flow overland from the Ukraine to neighboring countries are causing a massive drop in prices in Eastern Europe. In a speech on Wednesday, the Polish Prime Minister therefore called for the international community to intervene with all possible regulatory means in order to end the sometimes existential market situation in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine. EU Agriculture Commissioner Wojciechowski showed understanding for this demand and promised that the EU Commission would help. A look at the customs import statistics shows that in this financial year 6.66 milliontons of soft wheat was imported into the EU, compared to only 2.02 million tons in the previous year and only 1.66 million tons in the previous year. The plus is largely due to the Ukrainian deliveries, which alone account for 4.31 million tons. On the other hand, EU exports of common wheat are still above last year's level. Until 26.3. 22.66 million tons were exported, compared to 20.89 million tons at the same time last year. US exports have also been somewhat more dynamic recently, but are still below the expectations of market participants. While hardly any frost damage is reported for the EU, Ukraine and Russia and winter crops as a whole got through the cold season well because of the very mild winter, the US winter wheat stocks are suffering primarily from drought. In Kansas in particular, one of the most important growing states in the USA, it is currently far too dry and inventory valuations in many states are being corrected further downwards. The announcement by Cagrill and Viterra to say goodbye to loading activities in Russia caused a stir on the international markets. This initially caused an upsurge on the stock exchanges.But Russia was quick to deny that this was a problem. You can easily replace the missing capacity on your own. On the Russian export front, the rumors from last week that the Ministry of Agriculture in Moscow had instructed its exporters to export less wheat and sunflower oil were also denied. The ministry said there were no such intentions. US corn was able to benefit above all from daily announced export deals with China and unknown buyers. The export figures have recently been friendly. The drought in Argentina, on the other hand, could come to an end. For the next few days, heavy rainfall has been forecast in the important growing regions. However, the grain exchange in Buenos Aires left its production forecast of 36 million tons at the previous week's level. The EU has until 26.3. third already imported significantly more maize than in the entire 2021/22 marketing year. The import counter is currently at 20.38 million tons. Here, too, the main supplier is the Ukraine, which accounts for around half of EU imports with 10.6 million tons, followed by Brazil with 7.82 million tons.tons and far ahead of the third largest supplier, Canada, which brought 808,108 tons to Europe in the current marketing year.