Getreide News, 04/21/2023

The wheat prices are hardly changed over the weekend either from the day before or from Friday of last week. While the contract prices for corn and wheat climbed significantly at the beginning of the week, they returned to the level reached in the middle of the week. Prices on the cash markets as well as on the two important stock exchanges were primarily driven by concerns about Ukrainian grain exports. Russia had recently prevented exports due to a lack of inspectors, while Poland and Hungary had imposed import bans on Ukrainian grain. The neighboring countries to the country at war were partially flooded with grain by Ukraine's "overland exports", which had led to massive local price falls. A political solution became apparent in the middle of the week, and grain trains should be allowed to roll through Poland again from tomorrow. Since the middle of the week, the handling and inspections of the ships from the three defined Black Sea ports in Ukraine have been running faster again. These two circumstances, which ensured strong growth in corn and wheat on Monday and Tuesday, also caused a setback on Wednesday and Thursday.The mood on the cash markets in this country is still calm. This week's volatility created caution and uncertainty among both registration trading and producers. Mills in particular are currently not showing any interest in new quantities of grain. In the concentrated feed industry, smaller and short-term quantities are always being sought. In an updated estimate for Europe, the US Department of Agriculture has raised its grain forecast for Europe. For the coming season, the analysts expect a production of 285 million tons of grain for Europe, which corresponds to an increase of 18 million tons compared to the previous year. Wheat production is seen at 137.8 million tons, up 3.5 million tons from last year. The USDA also believes that the European Union can once again export a higher amount of 35.4 million tons of wheat for the coming season. The EU Commission had recently assumed grain production in the coming marketing year of 290.4 million tons and 134.4 million tons of wheat (hard and soft wheat). On Thursday in particular, the new forecast by the International Grains Council (IGC) drew attention to the corn market.The IGC expects higher corn production for the coming year compared to the March estimate. The production is said to be 1.208 million tons. That is 6 million tons more than the last estimate and 58 million tons more than in the current marketing year. There was hardly any noteworthy news from South America this week. The crop forecasts for Argentina remain at a historically poor level. In the USA, a bad weather front is hampering the sowing of maize, which actually started quickly. Ethanol production has recently increased further, but was unable to prevent corn prices on the CBoT from falling somewhat, as the news about Ukrainian grain exports weighed on sentiment here as well.