Getreide News, 05/12/2023

Wheat prices have been under pressure this week. In the new front month of September 2023, the closing price was 241.50 euros/t last Monday, but yesterday evening it was still 232.00 euros/t. With the start of the trading day on Friday, there are slightly positive tendencies for the first time this week. The CBoT also went south over the course of the week, but shortly before the release of the May WASDE by the USDA, prices are also trending higher premarket today. Corn also fell on Euronext/Matif, but lost less than wheat. On Monday the closing price was 229 euros/t, yesterday evening at the closing bell in Paris 227 euros/t was on the display board for the front month of June. Grain batches are traded in manageable quantities on domestic cash markets. However, the demand from the compound feed industry as well as from mills is currently rather restrained. In view of the recent price setbacks in particular, many buyers were again hesitant. Demand for wheat from the coming harvest is also subdued. Only a few forward contracts are currently being concluded. There is certainly speculation as to how much grain is still in the producers' warehouses.In the south in particular, it is assumed that farmers will carry over quantities into the new crop, while in the west and north-west it is assumed that the quantities available should be sufficient until harvest and that the surplus to the new crop will remain manageable. The export demand for European wheat is still in strong competition with Russia, but also with deliveries from Ukraine. Weekly export volumes have recently declined. Overall, the export counter now stands at 26.48 million tons, compared to 23.86 million tons last year. European Union maize imports remain high. Up to May 7 of this year, 23.22 million tons of corn were imported in the current marketing year, almost 10 million tons more than at the same time last year. Of this, 7.9 million tons come from Brazil and 12.8 million from the Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, export sales and export shipments for wheat and corn have been disappointing of late. When it comes to wheat, the international competition for the Americans is very fierce, and when it comes to corn, there are increasingly cheap offers from Brazil, which is rich in crops.Heavy rainfall in the Great Plains has further improved the growth situation of winter wheat stocks. Earlier in the week, the USDA raised good and very good condition ratings by 1 percentage point, nonetheless, overall wheat stocks are not in good condition. Spring wheat sowing has stalled because of the rain. Maize sowing, on the other hand, is making very good progress and is proceeding at a faster pace than last year and the average for the last five years. In addition to the international competition in grain prices, it is primarily the situation surrounding the grain agreement that is causing uncertainty. Negotiations are ongoing, but no real results have been achieved so far. Ukraine announced yesterday via its Deputy Prime Minister that there was actually nothing standing in the way of the extension, which a Kremlin spokesman immediately denied. Russia will not agree to an extension if Russia's demands are not met. Today's WASDE should provide excitement, at least for corn. The majority expects US inventories to be surprisingly high.