Getreide News, 05/26/2023

On a weekly basis, wheat prices have changed little. Days of significant gains were, in turn, offset by larger losing trading sessions. Yesterday evening, the leading September date closed at EUR 222.50 per tonne, a little lighter than on Wednesday. The movement in corn was similar. The most traded August date closed yesterday evening at 214.50 euros/t. Few goods are currently being traded on the domestic cash markets. The willingness of agriculture to sell is low and the needs of mills and concentrated feed plants are also reluctant. Hardly any contracts have recently been concluded for the new crop. Farmers are mostly satisfied with the development of European stocks. Here and there growers and traders worry about the quality due to too much or too little rain showers. However, the EU forecast service MARS recently increased the yield expectations for wheat and barley and for the first time also provided an estimate for the coming harvest for corn. In the case of wheat, the average yield per hectare in Europe is said to be 7.72 tons, compared to 7.61 tons last year and an average of 7.37 tons over the last five years.Compared to the previous year, higher yields are also expected for grain maize. Instead of 8.4 tons as in 2022, there should be 9.66 tons per hectare with the coming harvest. The average yield over the last five years is 9.06 tons. Better yields are also expected for barley and triticale than the average for the last five years. Although European exports decreased in volume last week, over 27.99 million tons of soft wheat were exported to third countries in the full financial year to date. That is 13 percent more than at the same time last year and more than was exported in the entire 2021/22 financial year. Nevertheless, the competition from Russia remains strong. According to dealer statements, US buyers recently bought goods in Germany and Poland. The current euro-dollar ratio is playing into the hands of the Europeans. US exports, on the other hand, remain low. The weekly export volumes have recently been a bit friendlier, but are not convincing overall. On a weekly basis, the listings on the CBoT also fell. The condition of wheat fields in the USA has improved somewhat.In the two important growing states of Kansas and Oklahoma, however, only 10 percent of the stocks are in good or very good condition. The average for all states is at least 31 percent. The recently extended grain agreement for Ukraine caused a stir again during the course of the week. Ukraine accused Russian inspectors of deliberately delaying ship inspections. In addition, Russia prevented a freighter from entering a Ukrainian port. However, the interference from the Black Sea in pricing was not sustainable. The second corn harvest has begun in Brazil, which is likely to increase export competition with the USA in particular. As can be seen from data from China, farmers there feed less corn and instead use corn, which is currently cheaper on the world market. A few weeks ago, this development was already reflected in massive cancellations of US deliveries to China. Europe's imports, on the other hand, remain dynamic at a high level. Until last week, 23.98 million tons were imported in the marketing year to date. Spain remains the largest customer, followed at a considerable distance by the Netherlands and Belgium.