02.
06.23
Grain markets remain volatile

Getreide News, 06/02/2023

Bullish
  • Uncertainty grain corridor
  • Market participants focus on weather
  • Global demand picks up again
Bearish
  • Globally solid earnings prospects
  • International price pressure
  • US export figures
Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat May 4th. May 11th. May 18th. 25. May. Jun 1 +/-
Hamburg 243.00 241.00 235.00 235.00 227.00 -8.00
Lower Rhine 246.00 244.00 238.00 238.00 230.00 -8.00
Upper Rhine 236.00 242.00 236.00 236.00 228.00 -8.00
East Germany 227.00 255.00 219.00 219.00 211.00 -8.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 241.00 239.00 233.00 233.00 225.00 -8.00
Oldenburg 240.00 237.00 231.00 231.00 223.00 -8.00
feed barley
Hamburg 208.00 216.00 217.00 209.00 208.00 -1.00
East Germany 198.00 206.00 207.00 199.00 198.00 -1.00
grain corn
South Oldenburg n.n. nn nn 230.00 224.00 -6.00

Prices on the local grain markets continued to be volatile last week. The stock exchanges do not seem to be finding a unified direction and after the sharp price correction at the beginning of the week, the wheat and corn prices were able to regain some traction. On the spot markets, demand and trading is described as calm. Many feed manufacturers and mills currently have little need and are largely supplied with contracts. Only barley and corn seem to be still sought after regionally to a small extent. The upcoming harvest pressure and the falling prices in Russia are causing uncertainty among producers. Many warehouses are still full and the pressure to sell is increasing. Meanwhile, the EU has surprisingly exported significantly more than most market observers had assumed. A total of 28.4 million tons of wheat were sold, which corresponds to an increase of 11% compared to the previous year's level. The first forecasts for this year's harvest have been published from Spain. Experts from the Association of Agricultural Cooperatives anticipate that the harvest could total 9.1 million tons, almost half less than last year.In addition to the significantly smaller acreage of 5.5 million hectares, the main reason for the strong reduction is the poor growth conditions. Yesterday's news that there were renewed problems within the grain corridor had a supportive effect. According to reports, many ships arriving at Russian ports are not inspected, so that the entire supply chain is repeatedly delayed. The Russian side demanded that an important ammonia pipeline through the Ukraine be reopened. As long as this is not the case, no more ships heading for the port of Pivdenny should be checked. Meanwhile, the world market is looking for wheat offers again. Saudi Arabia has put out a tender for 480,000 tons.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Sentiment on grain markets remains mixed. Above all, the weather will be the focus of market participants in the coming weeks, even though most stocks are doing well in Germany and the EU at the moment. In addition, the new tensions surrounding the grain corridor are creating uncertainty and could provide direction for the market. All in all, bullish and bearish news are constantly opposing each other, so it could remain difficult to find a unified direction in the coming week.

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