With the exception of Wednesday, corn and wheat have been moving north this week. Quite significant losses on Wednesday ensured that the gains were rather modest on a weekly basis. Yesterday, Thursday, the front month for wheat closed at a closing price of 235.00 euros/t. Last Friday, the Euronext/Matif in Paris showed EUR 234.50/t. During this period, corn rose somewhat more significantly from EUR 232.50 to EUR 234.50 per ton. By midday, the contract prices on the Matif had risen more significantly again. What remains constant in the grain market is concern about the future of the grain deal for Ukraine. Russian President Putin was critical of the extension on Monday, and government officials followed up yesterday and repeated the Russian statement that the corridor would end soon. However, the end of the grain corridor seems to be priced in, at least for the time being. At the latest with the latest attacks on the port of Odessa by Russian rockets, market observers have lost hope for an extension of the corridor. On the other hand, the weather plays an increasingly important role.It is currently dry in many parts of Europe, with no widespread precipitation in sight. Irrigation systems are already running, especially on corn fields, but concerns about weather conditions are also increasing for wheat. The consulting company Strategie Grains felt compelled yesterday to adjust its forecast for the EU wheat harvest downwards by 1.3 million tons to 128.7 million tons. Drought and heat also characterize the general weather situation in the United States. Adequate soil moisture is currently lacking, particularly in the Midwest, where both winter and spring wheat grow. Where the winter wheat harvest is already in full swing, the farmers are making good progress with the harvest. As a result, wheat and corn were up this week on the CBoT, notably double digits yesterday. Here, too, the weather is the primary reason for the price rally. US export figures continue to disappoint and US ethanol production has also recently fallen. At the same time, the Brazilian second corn harvest is underway and should keep the current price increases in check in the medium term. The firmer developments on the futures markets are also rubbing off on the cash markets.Sales are a little lower again, many producers with old-crop goods are waiting for the current price rally. The wholesale prices for wheat, barley and corn increased by an average of 8 euros per ton on most trading centers on a weekly basis. The reasons for the increase are the same as those given on the stock exchanges. The drought in many growing regions of the country and the uncertainties in the grain supply from the Ukraine characterize the course of trade here as well.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The signs continue to point to rising prices. It is dry in many important growing countries: France, the USA, and some Canadian provinces. But here in Germany, too, there has been no precipitation in many important regions for more than three weeks. The geopolitical tensions are also driving prices, although there are also bearish signals and arguments. But the bottom line is that bullish market sentiment remains in place for both wheat and corn.
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