Getreide News, 06/23/2023

Wheat prices increased again in the week that is now ending. Although this Friday shows losses of half a percent until early afternoon, the prices for wheat and corn are higher than a week ago. On the CBoT, prices have also risen, although there was volatile trading, especially in corn, on a weekly basis. As a result of the increased stock exchange prices, the cash markets also continued to rise. However, sales remain small. The last price increases have evidently not yet been able to mobilize the last storage reserves. The mix of topics for the price increase is the same on both sides of the Atlantic. First and foremost, growers and market participants are concerned about the coming harvest. In Central Europe it was particularly dry between mid-May and mid-June. Rainfall has not fallen in many growing regions. At the beginning of the week, the EU forecast service MARS lowered its forecast for the expected yields per hectare for almost all types of grain. For soft wheat, the previous forecast was lowered from 6.01 t/ha to 5.92 t/ha, but is still above the long-term average of 5.81 t/ha.The German Raiffeisen Association followed up on Wednesday of this week and also put the red pen on the harvest quantities and hectare yields for Germany. High yield losses are expected, particularly in eastern Germany. Overall, the DRV now expects a wheat harvest of 21.87 million tons. In May, 22.31 million tons were still expected. If the forecast is correct, the wheat harvest in Germany would be 2.9% down on the amount of the previous year. For corn, 3.74 million tons are now expected instead of 3.95 million tons. This is 2.5% below the weak previous year's result. A similar picture emerges in the USA. According to USDA data, as of 20.6. 15% of spring wheat and 50% of winter wheat stocks affected by dryness and drought. The status grades, especially for the summer crops, were revised downwards at the beginning of the week. In the case of maize, 64% of stocks are now threatened by drought. The EU export figures are still very good and corn imports in Europe are also dynamic. However, with the recent price increases for corn on the CBoT, US exporters are increasingly concerned about their international competitiveness.The large harvest in Brazil ensures competition with US corn in terms of price and quantity. Condition ratings have also been adjusted significantly downwards, the lowest in 35 years. The drought stress in barley is somewhat more relaxed in the USA. Here only 11 percent of the areas are threatened by drought. However, showers are reported for the coming days for some areas in the Midwest and Corn Belt. In Europe, too, precipitation on Tuesday and Thursday caused a slight relaxation. EU export figures It is now certain that the grain agreement for Ukraine will expire on July 18th. This has now been confirmed by a Ukrainian diplomat. Recently, exports have been tough anyway. The inspections of the ships were significantly slowed down by the Russian side. However, as observers of the situation are now saying, the country is no longer so dependent on the Black Sea route. A large part of the agricultural goods leave the country via the Danube and the railway in the direction of Western Europe. Other quantities are also transported by truck.