The wheat market started the week with little impetus and initially remained under pressure. At the beginning of the week, weak US prices, triggered by disappointing short-term export data, weighed on the market, while the solid longer-term trend in shipments provided little support. SRW wheat in particular fell significantly in Chicago, while HRW wheat in Kansas City was somewhat more stable but also recorded losses. In the middle of the week, there was still a lack of clear direction. Reports from Turkey came into focus, as improved rainfall conditions there raised hopes of higher yields and eased the global supply picture. Towards the end of the week, the market temporarily turned upwards, supported by a generally friendlier mood on the agricultural markets and political signals from the US towards China. Fundamental support remained limited, however, as weekly US export bookings were again weak. On Euronext, the wheat market was more stable overall. Logistical restrictions due to winter conditions and the weakness of the euro provided temporary support, but the abundant global supply limited the upside potential.
The maize market was more balanced. At the beginning of the week, solid export commitments for the current season kept prices up, even if short-term shipments were disappointing. In the middle of the week, strong processing figures for US ethanol production provided support, while contrary signals of declining weekly production had a dampening effect. At the end of the week, the focus shifted to Argentina, where the condition of corn stocks continued to deteriorate as a result of the ongoing drought. This development gave prices an additional boost, even though there was hardly any movement on Euronext.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In the short term, the grain market remains susceptible to setbacks, as demand for wheat in particular is not convincing. At the same time, weather-related risks in important export regions for maize and political signals in trade could cause distortions at any time. Wheat is likely to move sideways for the time being, with differences between the varieties remaining. Corn has a little more support due to the developments in Argentina, but also remains heavily dependent on exports. Overall, there is much to suggest that market participants are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Only clear new fundamental data could trigger a sustainable trend.
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