Getreide News, 08/18/2023

Wheat prices have been under pressure this week. The front month of September on the Euronext/Matif closed yesterday at 228 euros/t. On Friday last week the price was still 236.50 euros/t. Maize has also continued to weaken recently. A similar development can also be seen on the domestic cash markets. Harvest work in Germany continues. Wheat and barley are still in the fields and are brought in with interruptions. In many cases, the batches come from the field too wet, but because of the late timing, producers cannot always take this into account. Most of what is currently being harvested does not meet the requirements for milling wheat, and spring barley often does not meet the requirements for malting either. The compound feed industry is reacting to this with restrained demand. Few goods are now handled outside of existing contracts. In northern Germany there are increasing reports of outgrowths, in the south there are also some outgrowths, but they are less obvious here than in the north.The International Grains Council has not changed its forecast for the global wheat harvest, but expects higher consumption and has therefore lowered its forecast for global ending stocks by 2.3 million tons to 260.9 million tons. The Russian analysis company IKAR has again raised its forecast for the Russian harvest by 1.5 million tons to 89.5 million tons and APK Inform also expects a slightly better wheat harvest for the Ukraine. The analysis company expects a harvest of 20.6 million tons of wheat and 25.5 million tons of corn. Wheat exports are estimated at 12 million tons despite the current difficulties, and Ukraine is confident of 18 million tons of corn. Most recently, however, attacks on Ukrainian ports had again caused latent concerns about supplies. It is said that warehouses and grain elevators were destroyed. In the USA, spring wheat harvesting and winter wheat leftover harvesting are continuing at full speed. Hot and dry weather is forecast for the coming days, especially in the corn belt. This recently fueled CBoT corn prices. According to media reports, Russia has sold around 9 million tons of wheat to India on significantly favorable terms.With this purchase, the Indian government is obviously trying to counteract the high food inflation on the subcontinent. Because of last year's poor harvest, the granaries in India are very low. Unlike for wheat, the IGC has increased its forecast for global corn production and now expects an additional harvest of 900,000 tons compared to the last forecast. The harvest should therefore be 1.2 billion tons, the ending stocks will grow by a significant 6 million tons due to lower demand.