The grain markets were volatile this week. However, on a weekly basis, the December contract in Paris gained slightly and closed yesterday, Thursday, at a closing price of 238.25 euros/t. Prices reached a multi-week high on Wednesday, but then gave up some of their gains yesterday. Corn, on the other hand, was able to gain more significantly and end its downward trend from last week this week. The closing price in what is now the most traded March date was 210.75 euros/t yesterday. With manageable sales, there were overall firmer trends at the wholesale level on the local cash markets for grain. Similar to the price movement, the news situation was also varied. The Middle East conflict currently plays little role in the grain trade. Supply routes are not threatened by the attacks, and no significant change in the supply situation is seen as a result. News from the other war zone in eastern Europe was hardly in the headlines this week. The winter wheat sowing in Ukraine is already underway, the corn harvest is also at the target level and the wheat harvest in Russia is also nearing completion. The dynamics of Russian wheat exports have recently weakened.The consulting firm Sovecon estimates Russian exports for October at around 4.4 million tons, slightly below the level of October last year and well below the September level. However, Europe's wheat exports are also running with the handbrake on. The export figures published this week show white soft wheat exports amounting to 8.814 million tons, compared to over 11.3 million tons that were shipped in mid-October last year. According to rumors, China is still active on the market and is looking for grain in Australia and France. US export figures have improved and surprised many market participants and analysts. The fact that China bought a large amount of wheat from the USA at the beginning of the week provided a boost. Accordingly, the contracts in Chicago also increased significantly. On Thursday, the International Grain Council increased its previous forecast for the current season's global wheat harvest by 2 million tons to 785 million tons. More wheat is being seen primarily in Ukraine, Russia and the USA. Corn rose on both the CBoT and the Matif.The ongoing harvest work in Europe and in the USA as well as in Ukraine is putting a strain on the price trend, but a reduced global harvest expectation due to the IGC and good demand for US corn supported the market and caused prices to trend north. Higher ethanol production volumes and declining ethanol inventories also provided a corresponding boost to prices on the CBoT.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The grain markets have been able to develop more firmly in the past few days. The declining harvest pressure and declining exports in Russia provide support. However, the market situation remains fluid, supply and demand on the cash markets therefore remain manageable and, given the overall situation and different price expectations, little is likely to change in the next few weeks.
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