Getreide News, 10/21/2022

On a weekly basis, wheat prices in Paris and Chicago went south. With a closing price of EUR 338.75/t on Thursday, the front month on the Euronext/Matif lost EUR 12.00 compared to the settlement last Friday. CbOT was down from 859.75 US cents/bu last Friday to 849.25 US cents/bu yesterday Thursday. Corn also fell slightly on a weekly basis, although there were clear daily gains on the scoreboard yesterday, Thursday. The market's eyes continue to focus primarily on the Black Sea region. Tensions surrounding drone strikes on the capital Kyiv, recapture of large areas by Ukrainian forces, partial mobilization and open talks on the grain corridor are hovering over market fundamentals. United Nations envoys are currently in Moscow negotiating the future of the grain corridor. A representative was cautiously optimistic in the middle of the week and described the talks as "constructive and factual". According to various reports, winter wheat sowing in Ukraine is progressing slowly. The weather and the acts of war make sowing difficult.In Russia, the consulting firm Sovecon expects that the acreage for winter wheat could be significantly smaller with the current sowing. This year's harvest is proving to be very plentiful and is causing corresponding price pressure and very full warehouses. Although Russian exports are also rated higher, they are currently well below the volumes of the previous year. At 10.4 million tons up to and including October 17, European exports are just below the value of the previous year. Up to the 16th calendar week of the marketing year, 10.46 million tons of wheat were exported to third countries in the previous year. On the export front, Europeans continue to benefit from the current euro-dollar ratio. The situation is different for American exporters. The export sales published yesterday were disappointing across the board. During the week ending October 13th. only 163,100 tons were sold new. In the previous week it was still 211,823 tons. The analysts had previously expected at least 200,000 tons. In Argentina, the grain exchange reduced its expectations for the harvest there.On the one hand, the country has suffered from a drought, and on the other hand, temperatures below freezing point are currently endangering the wheat stocks. A harvest volume of around 15.3 million tons is now expected. The updated forecast of the International Grains Council for wheat was hardly noticed. The estimates were only slightly adjusted. Mais started the week on Euronext/Matif with losses, but was able to recover on Wednesday and Thursday. In its October estimate, the German Raiffeisen Association reduced the grain maize harvest in Germany to just under 3.6 million tons. This means that 20 percent less corn will be harvested this year than in the previous year. Harvesting work in Germany has meanwhile progressed very far. Remaining quantities should be brought in by the beginning of November. In Argentina, maize sowing is progressing slowly. Most recently, an area of around 1.6 million hectares was cultivated, compared to 2.8 million hectares at the same time last year. The corn harvest is progressing well in the USA. As of October 16, 45 percent of stocks were gone, compared to an average of 40 percent over the past five years.US ethanol production has picked up again, reaching 1 million barrels a day for the first time in more than a year. In its most recent forecast, the International Grains Council (IGC) once again corrected the corn harvest significantly downwards. Compared to the previous estimate, 2 million tons were deleted from the harvest balance. Closing stocks fall by a significant 4 million tons.