Getreide News, 10/27/2023

On both sides of the Atlantic, wheat and corn fell this week. Even though there were sometimes considerable increases on the display boards of the stock exchanges in Paris and Chicago on individual trading days, the contracts are trading lower than a week ago. Wheat closed in the December contract on the Matif last Friday at 240.00 euros/t, and yesterday, Thursday, 233.50 euros/t was still on the display board at the closing bell. Prices on the cash markets are also trending weaker. The news situation is varied this week and confirms the downward trend for grains. On Wednesday, the Russian government significantly increased its forecast for domestic wheat production and now expects a wheat harvest of 96 million tons, 3 million tons more. Although this falls short of the record year 2022/23, the harvest will still be much larger than was expected at the beginning of the season. In its October WASDE, the USDA only expected Russia to produce 85 million tons; last year there were already large differences between the estimates/results that Russia announced and the estimates of the US Department of Agriculture.Harvesting work in Ukraine is also progressing well and the yields are satisfactory. However, exporting grain remains problematic for Ukraine. The latest figures from the government in Kiev show that corn exports in particular have plummeted. Although the Ukrainian analysis house APK-Inform has reduced its forecast for the local corn harvest by 800,000 tons to 24.8 million tons, as stated in various reports, farmers in the war-torn country are often stuck with their harvests. Due to destroyed port infrastructure, unsafe trade routes across the Black Sea and the now closed land routes via the EU, grain exports remain a major challenge for the country. Europe's wheat exports have developed somewhat more favorably in the last week, but export volumes remain well below the previous year's level. Across the Atlantic, export fantasies have driven prices up from time to time, but better export opportunities have not yet been shown to be sustainable. Only 364,000 tons were sold last week. The grain exchange in Buenos Aires is skeptical about Argentine wheat stocks.As in the previous year, it was far too dry in the South American country. Rainfall is currently coming, but in many cases it comes too late for wheat. The large-scale wheat harvest will begin in Argentina in a few weeks. Argentine corn and Brazilian corn, on the other hand, can benefit noticeably from the rainfall. The European Union's corn imports are constant and at a significantly lower level than in the 2022/23 marketing year. The better harvest situation in Europe should make fewer corn imports necessary. The grain corn harvest has ended in many parts of Europe, effective sales in this country are still manageable for prompt deliveries, but as with feed grain overall, there is demand for deliveries in the first quarter of 2024. US exports this week were well above market expectations. With 1.351 million tons of corn sold, the previous week's results and analysts' estimates were exceeded. However, the better weather prospects in Brazil and the rapid US corn harvest weighed on trade overall. In Paris, the now most traded March contract fell from 211.50 euros/t last Friday to 207.75 euros/t yesterday, Thursday.