Wheat prices were under the impression of an overall bearish mood this week, interrupted by isolated support impulses. SRW wheat on the CBoT fell to a new five-year low over the course of the week, but was able to stabilize somewhat in the meantime thanks to technical buybacks. The market suffered from the ongoing US government shutdown, which led to the suspension of key USDA reports and thus failed to provide any important impetus. Export figures at the beginning of the week were an exception: at 505,096 tons, exports were well below the previous week, but above the previous year's level. Fundamentally, optimistic production forecasts in Argentina, Ukraine and the EU had a negative impact. Even Russia's announcement to reduce the area under cultivation could do little to change this. HRW wheat was less volatile, but also remained under pressure despite almost ideal sowing conditions in the southern US plains. In Europe, the weaker euro in particular supported Euronext prices, which improved slightly towards the end of the week.
Mixed impulses dominated corn trading. The ongoing US harvest put prices under pressure, particularly in view of regionally uneven yields. Analysts' estimates replaced the failed Wasde report and signaled a slight decline in yields per hectare. The improved export figures and an increase in ethanol production were only able to counteract this trend in certain areas. Overall, the market on the CBoT remained trapped in a sideways movement. In Europe, on the other hand, currency stimuli ensured a stable upward trend in prices, supported by export momentum and a lack of competition from the Black Sea region.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The lack of USDA data has made market orientation more difficult. Increased production forecasts from several regions of the world weighed heavily on sentiment, particularly in wheat trading. Russia's announcement that it would grow less wheat in future remained isolated bullish news with no lasting effect. For maize, there is a little more support from exports and signs of a slight decline in US production. The decisive factor for the coming week will be whether political agreements are reached in the US and thus the publication of key market reports is resumed. Until this happens, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
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