Getreide News, 11/Jul/2025

The wheat markets were under pressure last week, mainly due to weaker export figures and increasing trade policy uncertainties. In the USA, the winter wheat harvest is on a par with the previous year at around 53% planted status, but slightly below the five-year average. The condition of stocks has deteriorated slightly. Although high export sales, particularly to countries such as Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and South Korea, continue to have a positive effect, announcements of higher tariffs on goods from Asian countries and the reduction of the Russian export tax to zero percent are dampening sentiment. The removal of the export tax in Russia has significantly increased competitive pressure on the global market, putting wheat prices under pressure. The EU also exported significantly less wheat in the most recent marketing year than in the previous year, which increases the global supply surplus. On European futures exchanges such as Euronext, the price of wheat moved sideways with a slight upward trend towards the end of the week. Caution prevails ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE report, but expectations of lower US production and slightly declining inventories are providing support.

The corn market also reacted sensitively to trade policy: the US government's announcement to increase tariffs on goods from South Korea and Japan from August weighed noticeably on prices. Despite the political uncertainties, export demand remains robust. Weekly export figures show a significant increase compared to the previous year, with strong buyers such as Mexico, Japan and South Korea. At the same time, the condition of corn stocks in the USA is improving and the good growing weather is leading to optimistic yield expectations. Brazil also raised its harvest estimate significantly, further increasing global supply and intensifying price pressure. Corn prices on Euronext fluctuated over the course of the week, but trended slightly downwards overall. In the medium term, however, rising ethanol production and falling stocks in the USA could have a dampening effect on prices. Ahead of the USDA report, a reduction in US acreage and thus slightly lower production is also expected, which could stabilize the market.

Overall, a mixture of political tensions, uncertainties on the export side and improved harvest prospects are evident for both types of grain, which have moved the markets in the last week. Prices are trending slightly downwards to sideways, with individual recoveries supported by export demand and upcoming USDA data.