Wheat contracts in Paris rose slightly last week. On Friday, the coming front month of March 2024 closed at a closing price of 230.25 euros/t, which was 1.25 euros/t higher compared to Friday of the previous week. Corn also increased slightly and ended the trading week on Friday at 201.25 euros. On the Friday before, the leading March date was still quoted at 200.00 euros/t. Above all, the December WASDE of the Grain Council kept the market busy. But the sometimes difficult weather conditions in southern Germany and the flooding on the Rhine also had an impact this week. Cash market activity remains manageable. Many traders have already completed their deals for 2023 and are focusing on trading in the new year. Contracts for the coming harvest continue to be traded in isolated cases. In France, winter wheat sowing has made better progress recently, although it is still not certain whether farmers will cultivate the entire targeted area. Europe's exports continue to lag behind the previous year's results. Price competition from Russia remains. Export shipments there have recently been significantly dampened by weather conditions along the Black Sea ports.On Friday, however, it became known that Egypt, for example, had once again purchased a large amount of wheat from Russia. In the WASDE report, the USDA increased the global production forecast again. A harvest of 783.01 million tons is now expected; in November, the USDA figures were 781.98 million tons. While US production and European production remained unchanged, the harvest volume for Australia was increased by one million tonnes. A larger harvest is also expected in Canada. Since China has recently purchased larger quantities of US wheat, the USDA experts believe their own country can achieve larger export volumes. Ending inventories are falling, both in the U.S. and worldwide. When it comes to corn, the focus recently has been on the weather conditions in Brazil. However, due to the difficult start phase and the now better growth phase, the USDA did not make any changes to the production estimate for Brazil and continues to expect a harvest of 129 million tons. For Europe, the corn harvest has been adjusted upwards by 300,000 tons and is now at the higher value of 60.10 million tons recently also set by the EU Commission.There were significant adjustments in corn for Russia and Ukraine, which can each expect an additional harvest of 1 million tons compared to the previous WASDE. Global production was also increased accordingly. However, friendly US export demand slowed down the downward correction on the CBoT, particularly on Friday.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In view of the new figures from the US WADE report, the supply situation is likely to continue to be sufficient and prices are likely to be under pressure. Although there are slight gains on a weekly basis, demand for European grain is likely to be more subdued due to the large harvest in Russia and price competition on the Black Sea.
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