Getreide News, 12/23/2022

Wheat recovered somewhat on a weekly basis. While the closing price for the front month of March on the Paris Matif scoreboard on Friday was EUR 297.50, the closing bell on Thursday was EUR 303.75 per tonne. In particular, significant price gains on Wednesday stopped the downward trend in wheat. The higher stock market prices also led to increases in spot market prices over the weekend. The local cash markets are still quiet. Even in the week before Christmas, only a few quantities are handled. Supply and demand are manageable, as producers are often waiting for further developments and feed mills in particular are currently well supplied until January. In any case, the demand for feed mills is declining. As the figures from the livestock census have confirmed, the number of pigs in particular is clearly declining, leading to a reduced demand for feed grain. In the meantime, little has changed in the global news situation shortly before the festival. The generally more comfortable wheat supply put pressure on prices and should continue to be a dominant topic on the stock exchanges and cash markets in the coming weeks.The Federal Statistical Office published the cultivation estimates for the coming harvest on Wednesday. Accordingly, the area under cultivation in Germany is 1.9 percent less than in the previous year. Winter wheat has been planted on an area of 2.8 million hectares. Although the EU export figures have lost momentum slightly, at 15.7 million tons they are still well above the export volume of the previous year. France is still the largest exporter of wheat and barley in the European Union. While wheat exports are higher than last year, barley exports have almost halved. In particular, the weaker demand from China is noticeable in the statistics. On the other side of the Atlantic, rainfall in Argentina has eased the situation in the drought-plagued country. US export figures have recently been disappointing. Nevertheless, the prices for wheat on the CBoT were able to increase recently. In particular, an announced cold snap in the Midwest is driving prices north. The stocks here lack the necessary frost resistance. There is also no protective snow cover in the most important growing regions. The concern about frost damage is correspondingly high.Corn prices recovered significantly this week. In addition to the definitely positive specifications for wheat, the updated harvest estimate from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture is supporting the market. The agricultural authority there assumes that this year's corn harvest will be around 23 million tons. In its December WASDE, the USDA had assumed 27 million tons. In particular, lack of fuel, acts of war and weak domestic prices have made the corn harvest difficult or unprofitable. According to estimates, around a third of the areas were not harvested. The CBoT prices for corn also increased on a weekly basis. US ethanol production continues to decline, but US ethanol inventories are also declining. The governments of Mexico and the USA are currently negotiating a possible import ban on genetically modified corn, which Mexico intends to introduce from 2024. Both sides recently expressed optimism that a solution will be found here.